Loonieviews January 19, 2012

USD/CAD  Open 1.0090-95    Overnight Range 1.0086-1.0125


The Canadian dollar firmed again overnight  as global investors continue to prefer the “glass is half full” approach to risk analysis.  The AUD/USD got spanked in the early going on disappointing jobs data providing additional support to those looking for a RBA rate cut in February. Better than expected debt auctions for France and Spain  kept the US dollar under pressure , elevating the loonie in the process.WTI  Oil prices in the $102.00 area are also CAD$ supportive.  US data releases today include: CPI (forecast 3.0%, yoy, ex food and energy, 2.2%) Housing starts (forecast +680k) and Jobless Claims (+384K)

 The short term CAD$ technical’s are bullish but testing strong support at 1.0080. There is additional support at 1.0030 and 0.9936 (200 day moving average).  A USD/CAD move above 1.0130 would suggest further 1.0080 1.0210 consolidation.  For today, USD support is at 1.0080, 1.0030 and 1.0010.  Resistance is at 1.0130 and 1.0160

 The Canadian dollar is benefitting from  what I believe is a general suspension of reality as global investors appear to be blissfully ignoring the dangers of a shooting war with Iran and the  contagion effects of a likely exit of Greece from the Euro.

And in other news, US President OBama made a courtesy call to Canadian Prime Minister, Harper, prior to announcing the cancellation of the  Keystone Pipeline project. Obama is rumoured to have said “Hey Steve, it’s like this. After an rigorous and in depth economic and environmental analysis, I have to cancel the project, because I need the votes.

Forecast Range of the Day  1.0030-1.0120


Categories Markets

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