Loonieviews January 20, 2012

January 20, 2012

USD/CAD Open 1.0135-40 Overnight Range 1.0109-1.0155
***Canada CPI +2.3% yoy (forecast 2.7%) Core CPI 1.9% yoy ( Forecast 2.2%)****

The Canadian dollar gave back all of yesterday’s gains overnight as the USD recouped earlier losses vs the majors. The better than expected Canadian CPI data will temper calls for higher Canadian rates to combat inflation. On-going Greek debt negotiations as we head into the weekend likely spurred profit taking in European equity indices, which were all lower. NY equity futures indices are essentially flat. WTI Oil is at $99.50/bbl and gold is at $1,645.77

The short term CAD$ technical’s are muddle with good arguments to be made for both bullish and bearish scenarios. CAD bulls like the series of lower USD/CAD highs since mid December looking for a decisive breech of the 1.0030-1.0080 USD support zone to extend gains to 0.9870. CAD bears view the failure of the USD to extend gains through the 1.0030-80 support zone as evidence that the USD/CAD uptrend since mid Jun, 2011 is alive and well, targeting 1.0620. For today, USD support is at 1.0110, 1.0080 and 1.0060. USD Resistance is at 1.0180, 1.0210 and 1.0240

There isn’t a lot of data being released today to provide additional US dollar direction, leaving investors and traders vulnerable to European and Greek debt negotiation headlines. The profit taking trend seen in europe should extend to North america leaving the loonie exposed to further losses.

And in other news, , London Ontario residents strolling past the local court house last Tuesday were “Shanghaied” by police and court bailiffs. A London judge found herself a few jurors shy and ordered court bailiffs to round up people on the street to serve on the jury. If it was me, I would have found the accused “not guilty”, even before the evidence was presented.

Forecast Range of the Day 1.0030-1.0120

Categories Markets

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