Loonieviews-February 9,2012

February 29, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0.9885-90 Overnight Range 0.9880-9958

The Canadian dollar leaped through support at 0.9910 during the European session following a bigger than expected LTRO of $529.5 billion. Global equity indices and NY equity futures were all higher on the news, yet even in this improved risk -on environment, EUR/USD retreated . This may be due to a combination of "buy the rumour-sell the fact", profit taking and month end rebalancing flows. The CAD$ strength can be attributed to a bit of buying of CAD vs EUR supported by modestly firmer WTI prices. US data releases today include: GDP,QoQ (2.8%), Chicago Purchasing Manager (61.0) and the Fed Beige Book

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish looking for further CAD$ gains to 0. 9810 and then 0.9730, following the decisive breach of the 0.9910-40 support zone. For today, USD support is at 0.9880,.09840 and 0.9810. US dollar resistance is pegged at 0.9910 and 0.9950.

The Canadian dollar had been relatively stagnant for the past few weeks but showed signs of life overnight, better reflecting the nearly 12% rise in WTI Crude since the middle of February. The CAD$ demand can be attributed to a mixture of month end demand for CAD$, EUR/CAD selling and the rumoured completion of a large sell CAD$ order attributed to a portfolio shift out of Canada.

And in other news, an asteroid called 2011 AG% is on a collision course for earth with an ETA of 2040. Fortunately, NASA is prepared . Billy Bob Thornton and Bruce Willis (or their heirs) will be coming out of obscurity and blasted into space in a new reality show called Armageddon For Real

Today’s Forecasted Range 0.9840-.9940


Loonieviews February 28, 2012

February 28, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9960-65 Overnight Range 0.9942-9992
The Canadian dollar drifted higher in a quiet overnight session. The tone for markets is mostly positive, following the passage of the German vote for Greek aid while ignoring S & P’s declaration that Greece is in “selective default.” Asian and European equity indices are modestly higher. WTI Crude is trading at $108.00 while gold is at $1,777.56 US data includes Durable Goods (Forecast Jan. -1.0, ex transportation 0.0) S&P/CS Home prices and consumer confidence. No data from Canada.The short term USD/CAD technical’s have flipped to bearish targeting 0.9910 following the break of support at 0.9980. For today, USD support will be found at 0.9940 and 0.9910. Resistance is pegged at 0.9980. 0.9990 (200 day moving average) and 1.0020

The Canadian dollar appears to have regained its legs, having underperformed in the past few weeks despite a 12% jump in WTI oil price. This may be due to unconfirmed reports of large CAD$ selling due to a portfolio shift and in part due to selling of CAD$ vs EUR. Now, month end portfolio rebalancing flows are the wild card.

And in other news, Costa Cruise Lines had another bad day when the cruise ship, Costa Allegra, caught fire, killing their engines and leaving about 1,000 people adrift near Somali pirate waters. In response, Costa Cruise Lines will reevaluate the “all-inclusive” aspect of their cruises with the intent of removing “Life-Threatening Perils” from the agenda.

Today’s Forecasted Range 0.9910-.9990


Loonieviews Feb ruary 27, 2012

February 27, 2012

USD/CAD Open 1.0030-35 Overnight Range 0.9977-1.0050

The Canadian dollar declined steadily overnight with the US dollar gaining in Europe, in part due to concerns that the G-20 rejection of more funding for the Euro zone gives the sovereign debt crisis a second wind. Also, rising commodity prices particularly oil could exacerbate a European recession. Global equity indices and NY futures are all in the red. WTI Oil is at $108.57 and gold is $1,766.55.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish following the break above resistance at both 0.9980 and 1.0005, looking for a test of 1.0090, which is the top of the US dollar down-trend channel. For today, USD support is at 1.0030, 1.0010 and 0.9980. Resistance is at 1.0060 and 1.0090

The Canadian dollar has struggled to participate in the recent bout of US dollar weakness, in part due to reportedly steady selling of CAD against JPY and EUR. However, WTI oil prices around $108/bbl should help to limit CAD$ losses.

And in other news, George Clooney pulled out all the stops in hopes of clinching a ‘Best Actor" award at the Oscars. Unfortunately, his clumsy attempt at French kissing Billy Crystal failed to sway the elderly academy voters who preferred Jean Dujardin, who was acting in the type of film most of them had worked on.

Today’s Forecasted Range 0.9980-1.0050

Loonieviews February 24, 2012

February 24, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0.9973-78 Overnight Range 0..9967-.9988

The Canadian dollar barely budged overnight despite rising WTI Oil prices ($108..40/bbl), a return to a risk seeking environment on diminished Euro zone debt concerns and steadily improving US economic data. Asian equity indices were all higher as were the European indices (except Swiss and Spain) Gold is trading at $1,778.42. US data releases today include; Michigan Confidence (forecast 73.0) and New Home Sales (forecast 2.6%, MoM)

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are unchanged from yesterday with the currency pair locked within a 0.9930-1.0030 range> For today, USD support is at 0.9960, 0.9940 and 0.9910. Resistance is at 0.9990, 1.0010 and 1.0030

The Canadian dollar is being pulled in opposite directions. CAD$ demand from rising oil prices and an improving US economic outlook is being offset by profit taking selling of CAD$ against, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD.

And in other news, a Florida man suffered severe burns and lost teeth when an electric cigarette exploded in his mouth. Apparently the quit smoking aid was successful because without lips and a face swathed in gauze, the unnamed man hasn’t had a smoke in a week.

Today’s Forecasted Range 0..9940-1.0010

Loonieviews February 23, 2012

February 23, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0.9980-85 Overnight Range 0.9960-1.0010

The Canadian dollar went along for the ride, rising in tandem with a weak US dollar vs Europe on the coattails of a modestly better German IFO report, which also boosted commodity prices. WTI Oil is trading at $106.33 and gold is at $1,776.38. The ruling Australian Labor party has announced a quick leadership vote for Feb.27 which could see the current Prime Minister replaced with her predecessor. In China, the Premier is reportedly planning to target growth of less than 8% in a March 5 address, which could dampened the current global growth euphoria. Today’s US data releases include Jobless claims (forecast 355K) and House Price index (forecast 01.%, MoM)

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are mixed as the currency pair is locked within a 0.9930-1.0030 range and needs a break of either side to extend. Meanwhile the dominate trend is still for a weaker US dollar, stronger CAD$. See chart below. For today, USD support is at 0.9960, 0.9930 and 0.9910. Resistance is at 0.9990, 1.0010 and 1.0030

Rising commodity prices and a steadily improving US economy will serve to limit CAD$ downside and allow for a slow grind higher.

And in other news, a new Facebook app allows users to post a status update even after you are dead. It is unclear if you become "Single", In a Relationship " or "Buried" but one thing is for sure, Capital One will offer you a credit card.

Today’s Forecasted Range 0..9960-1.0005

Loonieviews-February 22,2012

February 22, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0..9978-83 Overnight Range 0.9955-0.9987

The Canadian dollar bounced around in a fairly narrow range overnight. The loonie traded lower in early Asian markets then recouped all of its losses, only to reverse those gains during the European session. A mixed Chinese manufacturing report, a disappointing Euro zone PMI report and lingering uncertainty surrounding the Greece deal supported the US dollar. Today’s US data includes Existing Home Sales (Forecast +4.66m) Asian equity indices ended higher but European equity indices and NY equity futures are lower. WTI Oil is at $105.72/bbl and gold is $1,755.46.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish while the USD/CAD rate is trading above 0.9960 but needing a break of 0.9995 to extend gains to 1.0040. For today, USD support is at 0.9960, 0.9940 and 0.9910. Resistance is at 0.9985-90, 1.0010 and 1.0040

There isn’t much in the way of top tier economic data being released in the US or Canada, leaving currency traders to look to equities for direction. The WTI price above $105.00/bbl on the back of Iran tensions should also serve to limit CAD$ losses.

And in other news, researchers from Emery University have determined that whales and dolphins are so intelligent that they should be protected by a bill of rights. It is rumored that the researchers compared these aquatic mammal’s IQ to the current Canadian parliament and discovered that not only were Flipper and Free Willy smarter, the politicians barely qualified as bait.

Today’s Forecasted Range 0..9960-1.0005

Loonieviews-February 21, 2012

February 21, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9968-73 Overnight Range (including Monday) 0.9907-9976
The Canadian dollar gave back all of Monday’s gains garnered in anticipation of a favourable outcome to the EU/Greece negotiations. The news that Greece would get another bail-out was treated as a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” event, with the US dollar recouping lost ground vs the EUR and the majors, despite news that China cut the RRR rate on Monday. There will be enough drama between now and March 14 (when Greece actually gets its hands on the money) and the Greek elections in April to ensure that the risk-on-risk off environment remains intact. European equity indices are all in the red but NY equity futures are slightly higher. Canadian Retail Sales is forecast +0.2%, momThe short term CAD$ technical’s are bullish while USD/CAD trades below 0.9980 with a test of 0.9880 in the cards. For today, USD support is at 0.9940, 0.9910 and 0.9880. USD resistance is at 0.9980, 1.0005 and 1.0030.

Today’s Canadian Retail Sales data should keep the positive Canadian dollar bias intact, supported by rising oil prices on the back of Iran tensions.

And in other news, proof that Financial Institutions have taken the lessons of the 2008 Credit melt-down to heart comes in the form of a $30,000 pre-approved credit line from Capital One for a dog. Capital One defended their actions stating that “due to the fact that the dog died 13 years earlier, our exposure was minimal

Today’s Forecasted Range 0.9910-0.9980