Loonieviews March 21, 2012

March 21, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9887-92 Overnight Range 0.9877-0.9920

The Canadian dollar rose as the US dollar retreated vs the majors, in part due to a more positive outlook for Europe after Greece’s parliament approved the bail-out. (like they were going to turn down $120 billion?) This week, FX trading remains choppy and range bound with a lack of top tier economic data to provide direction. Overnight, Asian equity indices were down, European indices were mixed and NY equity futures pointing up. WTI Oil is $106.48/bbl while gold is $1,656.80/oz. US data on tap is existing home sales, forecast to rise to 4.61 annualized. Canada has leading indicators.

The short term CAD$ technical picture is still biased to higher CAD$ while trading below 0.9950 with the recent break of 0.9880 exposing 0.9840. For today, USD support is at 0.9880, 0.9860 and 0.9840. Resistance is at 0.9910 and 0.9940

The Canadian dollar may have been given an added lift with the acceptance of the Glencore/Viterra takeover on the expectation of foreign demand for Canadian dollars. Since the transaction doesn’t have shareholder or government approval and doesn’t close until Viterra’s third quarter, near term CAD$ demand is unlikely.

In other news, a new poll in Britain points suggests that being poor is healthy because when people are broke or have lost their jobs, they drink less, smoke less and eat fewer take-out meals

Forecast Range of the Day 0.9860—0.9940

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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