Loonieviews March 23, 2012

March 23, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9997-1.0002 Overnight Range 0.9973-1.0006

Canadian CPI +2.6% vs forecast of 2.7%, YoY-Core 2.3% vs forecast of 2.2%******

The Canadian dollar stayed under pressure overnight, still reeling from yesterday’s surprisingly poor Canadian retail Sales report (0.5% vs forecast of 1.8% rise) The USD gave back some of yesterday’s gains vs the majors overnight, although the loonie didn’t really benefit from the move. Global equity indices are lower but US equity futures are flat. WTI Oil is at $105.87 and gold is at $1,650.33.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s have flipped to bearish. The decisive break through the top of the CAD$ uptrend channel at 0.9980 and the 200 day moving average at 1.0002 now targets a peak at the 100 day moving average, currently 1.0110. For today, USD support is at 0.9975 and 0.9950. Resistance is at 1.0030 and 1.0050.

The Canadian dollar uptrend channel intact since mid-November has been broken suggesting further CAD$ weakness toward 1.0010. However, the prospect for higher oil prices and the uptick of core CPI, which could give rise to Canadian rate hike chatter, should limit loonie downside.

In other news, an eighteen year old high school student in Minnesota will not be able to bring his dream date, pornstar Megan Piper to the school prom because the porn star’s appearance wouldn’t be in the best interest of the student. It is unclear how long the faculty viewed Ms Piper’s filmography before coming to their decision.

Today’s Range 0.9990-1.0060

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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