Loonieviews March 28, 2012

March 28, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9963-67 Overnight Range 0.9947-0.9975

The Canadian dollar barely budged in another dull, directionless overnight session. The USD has stayed soft vs the majors (except JPY) due to Bernanke’s dovish remarks. USD/JPY is bid, in part due to year end repatriations which has led to selling of CAD vs JPY. GBP/USD was undermined by a slightly worse than expected UK GDP. Global equity indices including NY futures are higher. Gold is at $1,677.80 and WTI oil is $106.22. Today’s US data -Durable Goods (Forecast 3.0%)

The short term Canadian dollar technicals are back to muddled. Yesterday’s USD/CAD move through 0.9930 support didn’t even result in a decent test of 0.9880 and its subsequent move back above 0.9930 argues for another test of 1.0030. For Today, USD support is at 0.9930, 0.9910 and 0.9880. Resistance is at 0.9975, 1.0005 and 1.0030

Canadian dollar flows appear to be reasonably balanced between sales of CAD vs JPY for Japanese year end demand and EUR (on USD weakness) against CAD$ demand from high oil prices and from expectations of a US recovery benefitting Canadian exports.

In other news, the Toronto Maple Leafs were officially eliminated from the playoffs last night, for the 7th consecutive year. Leaf GM Brian Burke stated that “the Leafs are usually eliminated by January, so this year’s performance is a major improvement.

Today’s Range 0.9940-1.0005

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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