Loonieviews-April 20, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0.9920-25 Overnight Range 0.9920-25

The Canadian dollar had a relatively quiet overnight session ahead of today’s Canadian CPI data at 8:30am which is forecast to rise by 0.5% in March (2.0% YoY; Core 1.9% YoY) Concerns surrounding the Bank of Japan’s easing intentions lifted USD/JPY (and CAD/JPY) while in Europe , the USD came under pressure due to a better than expected German IFO (102.7 vs 102.5) and a sharply higher UK Retail Sales number. Meanwhile, lingering nervousness about the on-going health of the Euroland economies (as evidenced by yesterday’s denied French downgrade rumour) ahead of the G-20 meeting this weekend suggests more choppy range trading ahead. Asian equity markets were mixed but Euro equities indices and NY equity futures are both higher. Gold is $1,644.77 and WTI Oil is $102.27

The short term CAD$ technical’s are neutral while the loonie remains in the 0.9980—0.9960 trading band. For today, USD support is at 0.9880 and 0.9840. Resistance is at 0.9950 and 0.9980

The CAD$ could rise sharply on surprising uptick in inflation on speculation that the Bank of Canada would hike rates sooner than anticipated. However, this year, the FX market is littered with the carcasses of CAD$ bulls who got long loonies below 0.9900 on anticipation of a sharp CAD$ rally.

In other news, the city of Toronto is contemplating spending $14,000 to teach driving skills to 100 city employees who regularly drive to reduce accidents. The money would be much better spent on training the “other guy”, who, if you ask any motorist, “can’t drive, is an idiot, and is always to blame”.

Today’s Range 0.0.9860-0.9960

Michael O’Neill



Categories Markets

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