Loonieviews May 4, 2012

USD/CAD Open 0.9878-83 Overnight Range 0.9878-0.9893

Paint drying competitions are more riveting than FX trading was overnight with most currency pairs moribund ahead of today’s US non farm payrolls release. Consensus is for a gain of 160K although Goldman Sachs is only forecasting +120K. Yesterday’s disappointing US ISM release ahead of the uncertainty surrounding payrolls led the USD dollar higher and equities lower, a theme that continued overnight. NY equity futures are modestly higher at the moment. WTI oil is $101.37 and gold is at $1,633.30

The short term CAD$ technical’s are encouraging for CAD$ bulls as the US$ has failed on its past three attempts to recoup losses above 0.9900 suggesting that this next leg of the CAD$ uptrend is intact. For today, USD support is at 0.9860, 0.9830 and 0.9810. USD Resistance is at 0.9895, 0.9910 and 0.9930.

Barring a big surprise in payrolls, trading activity is likely to rapidly decrease as Europe scrambles to get a head start on the May Day holiday weekend. In addition, the French elections have the potential to add to the Euro zone headache if France opts for a socialist agenda.

In other news, the Canadian media is in an uproar claiming that convicted fraudster, former Hollinger chairman, current Lord Black of Cross Harbour and renounced Canadian citizen, Conrad Black is receiving special treatment by Canadian Immigration. Conrad Black has a received a special one year permit to live in Canada upon release from a US prison. This is the same media that wants Canada to accept current Al Qaeda terrorist, and convicted murderer Omar Kadr back into Canada so he can live with the rest of his welfare sucking clan in Montreal. Why take either of ‘em?

Today’s Range 0.9810-9890

Michael O’Neill



Categories Markets

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