LoonieViews May 22, 2012

May 22, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0178-83 Range Since Friday Close 1.0155-1.0240

The Canadian dollar continued to retreat yesterday, nearly touching 1.0250 (the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of the entire 0.9790-1.0520 range intact since mid-December/11. ) The JPY came under pressure after Fitch downgraded Japan’s long term debt with a negative outlook, similar to Facebook investors “unfriending” the shares and driving them through the IPO price of $38 to below $33.00 at one point. Despite this, Asian and European equity indices are a touch higher although US equity futures are pointing down. WTI Oil is $92.04 and gold is at $1,577.98

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish looking for another test of 1.0250 while trading above 1.0080. A break above 1.0250 suggests further USD upside to 1.0520. However, the steepness of the USD uptrend argues for a period of consolidation between 1.0080 and 1.0250 as momentum has waned. For today, USD support is at 1.0150, 1.0130 and 1.0180. To the top, USD resistance is at 1.0190, 1.0230 and 1.0250

The Canadian dollar has dropped rather quickly in a fairly short time and is probably due to benefit from a bout of profit taking, especially if equity markets bounce. It may be worth selling USD/CAD here at 1.0180 (Stop above 1.0290) for a quick pop back to 1.0080.

In other news, Prince Charles and Camilla have arrived in Canada to allow the ‘colonists’ to pay homage to their monarch. The royals got to taste some maple syrup, play road hockey, chat to students in a Library and watch fireworks. It is unclear if this extremely boring itinerary did anything to dissuade future visits

Today’s Range 1.0090-1.0180

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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