LoonieViews May 31, 2012

May 31, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0283-88 Overnight Range 1.0262-1.0313

The Canadian dollar see-sawed nervously around 1.0300 overnight as FX markets awaited “data dump Thursday” in the US. Economic stats on tap for today include: Challenger Job cuts, RBC consumer Outlook, ADP employment change (150k) GDP (1.9%) Core PCE ( 2.1%, QoQ), Initial Jobless Claims (370k), Chicago Purchasing Manager survey (May 56.8) In addition, a very modest improvement in risk sentiment on expectations of a favorable outcome on an Irish vote for the European fiscal pact, an uptick in Italian and Spanish bonds ahead of the ECB next week and just plain old profit taking forced the US dollar to return a little of the this week’s gains. Asian equity indices closed down, European equity indices are all up as are NY equity futures. WTI oil is $88.00 and gold is $1,566.60

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish and in a steep uptrend on an hourly chart while trading above 1.0250. However, 1.0310 has proven to be fairly sticky and a retreat below 10250 should lead to further CAD$ gains to 1.0190. For today, USD support is at 1.0260, 1.0240 and 1.0210. Resistance is at 1.0290, 1.0310 and 1.0340

With month end demand for US dollars mostly completed, equities upticking and a slightly better looking risk profile, the loonie should grind higher and retest support around 1.0210.

In other news, a stray dog joined a group of Chinese cyclists, travelling over 1.100 miles, and over 12 mountains in China’s Southwestern Plateau. More impressively, the pup managed to avoid the cooking pot.

Today’s Range 1.0210-90

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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