LoonieViews June 28, 2012


LoonieViews
June 28, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0264-69 Overnight Range 1.0232-1.0278

The Loonie treaded water overnight, as did the rest of the majors in another boring session ahead of today’s EU summit. Expectations for a result are extremely low with Germany’s Merkel adamant about refusing to effectively co-sign for the debt of other EU nations. Traders entertained themselves with a NY Times tale of more woe at the House of Morgan. Jamie Dimon is looking a tad more foolish due to a story that the $2.0 billion trading loss he reported in May has ballooned to $9.0 billion. Unfortunately, on this go-around Ben Bernanke and the Fed are unlikely to hand him a deeply discounted bank or two to help hide their bungling. In the UK, Barclay’s Bank was fined 453 million pounds for not just rigging LIBOR fixes, but being so stupid as to brag about it in emails. Today’s US data releases include Jobless claims (forecast +385K) and US GDP (forecast 1.9% annual). Global equity indices were mixed to lower and NY equity futures are down, to start the day. WTI oil is $80.05 while gold sits at $1,569.50

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish US dollars while trading above 1.0220, which guards strong support at 1.0160. For today, USD support is at 1.0230, 1.0220 and 1.0180. Resistance is at 1.0280, 1.0300 and 1.0320.

The CAD$ is likely to come under renewed selling pressure today due to selling pressures stemming from month, quarter and half year demand for dollars ahead of a Canadian long weekend. Headlines and speculation from the EU summit will add to the volatility.

And in other news, San Francisco homeowners wanted a better view of the bay and the Golden Gate Bridge but another home blocked their view. So they bought the place for $4.2 million and tore it down. Problem solved. Here’s hoping that Turkey, already extremely annoyed with Syria, doesn’t conclude Syria is blocking its view of Jordan

Today’s Range 1.0220-1.0290

Note: There will not be a LoonieViews tomorrow

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

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LoonieViews June 27, 2012


LoonieViews
June 27, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0247-52 Overnight Range 1.0236-1.0263

Ho-hum-Another dreary overnight session devoid of any direction. FX markets are mostly unchanged ahead of the EU summit that starts tomorrow. Global equity indices are all higher, dubiously being attributed to a report in the Chinese Securities Journal that “China may introduce more proactive economic policies” Or the indices could just be up because they had dropped for four or five days. NY equity futures are flat at this moment. Today’s US data releases include; Durable Goods (Forecast May 0.5%, Ex transportation 0.7%) WTI oil is $79.11 and gold is $1,567.40

The short term USD/CAD technicals are unchanged. USD bulls look to buy USD/CAD in the 1.0180-1.0205 area with a stop below 1.0150 for a test of 1.0440. USD bears look to sell USD/CAD in the 1.0270-90 area with a stop above 1.0320 for a move through 1.0160, targeting 0.9960. For today, USD support is at 1.0240, 1.0220 and 1.0180. Resistance is at 1.0270, 1.0290 and 1.0310.

FX markets may be lulling themselves to sleep ahead of potential fireworks from unexpected EU summit headlines. The bar is set so low for this summit that anything can happen. In addition, a lot of potentially market moving US data gets released Thursday-Friday including; jobless claims, GDP, U of Mich confidence and Chicago Purchasing Mgrs survey. To make matters worse, there may be extra demand for US dollars from month, quarter and half year end flows.

And in other news, 37 year old Patrick Brazeau, is the latest poster boy for the abolishment of the Canadian Senate. He has a job for life (or until he turns 75), that pays $137K/yr plus perks and in keeping with CUPE and other civil servant norms, only shows up for work 75% of the time. Even Greek civil servants find this to be outrageous (or something to strive for)

Today’s Range 1.0220-1.0290

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

LoonieViews June 26, 2012


LoonieViews
June 26, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0260-65 Overnight Range 1.0252-97

The Canadian dollar bounced aimlessly in the early Asian session but managed to scrape higher during in European session. The key driver of currency movements continues to be the European sovereign debt negotiations and the lack of progress; however this horse has been well flogged so traders have chosen to fret about today’s US consumer confidence data. (Forecast 63.0) The pending EU summit (Thurs-Fri) will also keep currencies in current ranges.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish US$ while trading above 1.0160, however the hourly charts suggest a modest positive CAD$ bias while the USD/CAD rate is below 1.0280, targeting 1.0240 and then 1.0220. Above 1.0280 argues for more 1.0240-1.0320 trading. For today, USD support Is at 1.0240, 1.0220 and 1.0190. Resistance is at 1.0280, 1.0300 and 1.0320.

FX markets (and markets in general) are expecting to be disappointed with the outcome of the EU summit which should already be reflected in current price levels. The “risk-off” trade is getting a tad stale so the first indication that the EU results are slightly better than expected could result in an unwinding of safe haven trades

And in other news, the incredibly well equipped and well funded Toronto based Heavy Urban Search and Rescue (HUSAR) called off their search for survivors at the Elliot Lake mall collapse, saying it was “too dangerous” DOH! What did they think it would be? Maybe Ontario would be better served by flying in search and rescue volunteers from Italy, Greece, Haiti or wherever earthquakes occur and hire them to do the looking, since digging bare handed in rubble with aftershocks threatening their very existence, is second nature to them.

Today’s Range 1.0220-1.0290

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

LoonieViews June 25, 2012


LoonieViews
June 25, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0274-79 Overnight Range 1.0273-1.0300

The Canadian dollar retreated steadily from Friday’s closing price, in part due to falling oil prices (WTI $78.99) which have been under selling pressure by hedge funds unwinding positions due to oversupply and a slowing global economy. Risk aversion remained the main theme ahead of a key EU summit this week (June 28-29). Unfortunately, it appears that markets have taken an overwhelmingly pessimistic view point towards the outcome a situation made worse my remarks from George Soros suggesting that the “Euro could dissolve on a failure of this summit… “. Global equity indices including NY equity futures are all lower.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish US$ while trading above 1.0160, aiming for a retest of 1.0440 on a break of 1.0310. For today, USD support is at 1.0240, 1.0210 and 1.0180. USD Resistance is at 1.0310, 1.0340 and 1.0380

The Canadian dollar is vulnerable to further selling pressure due the combination of safe-haven demand for US dollars and slowing economic growth from China exacerbating falling oil prices.

And in other news, two teens in Vancouver, Washington decided to harass a jogger for “shits and giggles” with one impeding her forward progress with his bike while the other groped her. Unfortunately for them, the young lady had studied Kung-fu for 18 years at a studio owned by her family. When she went all Bruce Lee on their asses, they were soon begging for the police to come and arrest them. Charles Bronson would have just shot them.

Today’s Range 1.0240-1.0320

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

LoonieViews June 22, 2012


LoonieViews
June 22, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0274-79 Overnight Range 1.0273-1.0300

The Canadian dollar was unable to recover from yesterdays weaker than expected domestic and US economic data releases overnight a trend exacerbated by WTI oil trading below $80.00/bbl (currently $78.63). A soft German IFO business sentiment survey added to the existing paranoia of a global economic slowdown, a Spanish or Greek collapse and a lack of growth in the USA which led back to safe haven demand for US dollars and JPY. Asian equity indices closed down, European indices were flat to lower and NY futures are slightly higher to start the day. Canadian CPI data will be released today (Forecast 0.1% MoM; Core 0.3% MoM)

The short term USD/CAD technicals have turned bullish with the break of the steep downtrend line at 1.0260 which suggests a test of 1.0240 is in the cards. For today, USD support is at 1.0260 and 1.0240. Resistance is at 1.0300, 1.0320 and 1.0360.

The loonie has had its wings clipped by seemingly hysterical rantings by the BoC governor and the Finance Minister, warning of a possible Canadian housing crisis, dampening demand for the CAD$ even as oil prices slide. Perhaps they were feeling a little left out with all the attention being paid to the financial leaders in Europe and the US.

And in other news, the Toronto Star is reporting that the financially strapped Toronto District School board is being fleeced by the Maintenance and Construction Skilled Trades Council. In one blatant rip-off, the TDSB was billed $3,000 to install an electrical outlet. The bill included 76 hours of labor to account for workers who “had no assignment”, were on vacation” or merely absent” TDSB officials were not available for comment, but are likely to submit an invoice anyway.

Today’s Range 1.0240-1.0320

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

Looniev

LoonieViews June 21, 2012


LoonieViews
June 21, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0200-05 Overnight Range 1.0179-1.0226

The Canadian dollar was unable to extend gains through 1.0160 yesterday and spent the overnight session giving up ground. Global markets gave a collective “meh” to the Fed’s extension of “Operation Twist” and that, in conjunction with diminished manufacturing output in China and Germany dragged undermined commodity prices and equity indices. The US dollar rose vs. the majors ahead of US data which includes; Jobless claims (383k) and Home sales. Canada releases Retail sales (forecast 0.2%, MoM) WTI oil is $80.48 and gold is $1,599.43

The short term USD/CAD technicals are unchanged-a bearish USD bias ahead of formidable USD support at 1.0160. USD bulls will buy dollars in the 1.0175-85 area with a stop at 1.0150, looking for a return to 1.0440. USD bears will look to sell US dollars around 1.0240 with a stop at 1.0270 for a move to 0.9960. For today, USD support is at 1.0190 and 1.0160. Resistance is at 1.0220 and 1.0250.

The highly anticipated FOMC meeting mostly disappointed markets while the soft manufacturing reports and the open wound that is the European debt crisis suggest no change to the risk on-risk off environment. Oil prices flirting with $80/bbl will fail to stimulate CAD$ demand.

And in other news, a headline seeking Toronto city councillor is proposing that Toronto ban the sale of bullets within the city. Naturally the Canadian chapter of the NRA was up in arms about the proposal, but very briefly saying “Bullets don’t kill people, uh er,…hmmm I guess they do. Doh”

Today’s Range 1.0160-1.0240

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews

LoonieViews June 20, 2012


LoonieViews
June 20, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0180-85 Overnight Range 1.0168-1.0197

The Canadian dollar marked time overnight as global FX markets appeared to take a “time-out” awaiting the results of today’s FOMC meeting. The US dollar has retreated in recent days on widespread speculation that the Fed will opt to expand “Operation Twist” (a program that extends maturity of securities in Fed’s portfolio) in another attempt to spur growth. Global equity indices are flat to slightly higher and NY equity futures are flat. WTI Oil is $83.86 and gold is $1,613.85

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bearish with support at 1.0160 being the last line of defense ahead of a CAD$ rally to 0.9960. For today, USD support is at 1.0160, 1.0110 and 1.0060. Resistance is at 1.0190, 1.0220 and 1.0250.

Central bankers, worldwide, appear to be poised to open the flood gates unleashing a torrent of liquidity in another attempt to jump start economies and reduce unemployment. Even though such a move is expected, there is plenty of room for the US dollar to retreat on renewed risk seeking trading which would also drive the loonie higher.

And in other news, Adidas has cancelled the release of the “Shackle Sneaker” following public outrage that the design invoked images of slavery and prison chain gangs. This was disappointing news for Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who recently arrested a 6 year old girl for being an illegal. He planned on ordering 10 dozen pairs to ensure that when he trampled some poor person’s rights, that they would be “Stylin”.

Today’s Range 1.0190-1.0260

Michael O’Neill

LoonieViews