LoonieViews June 26, 2012

June 26, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0260-65 Overnight Range 1.0252-97

The Canadian dollar bounced aimlessly in the early Asian session but managed to scrape higher during in European session. The key driver of currency movements continues to be the European sovereign debt negotiations and the lack of progress; however this horse has been well flogged so traders have chosen to fret about today’s US consumer confidence data. (Forecast 63.0) The pending EU summit (Thurs-Fri) will also keep currencies in current ranges.

The short term USD/CAD technical’s are bullish US$ while trading above 1.0160, however the hourly charts suggest a modest positive CAD$ bias while the USD/CAD rate is below 1.0280, targeting 1.0240 and then 1.0220. Above 1.0280 argues for more 1.0240-1.0320 trading. For today, USD support Is at 1.0240, 1.0220 and 1.0190. Resistance is at 1.0280, 1.0300 and 1.0320.

FX markets (and markets in general) are expecting to be disappointed with the outcome of the EU summit which should already be reflected in current price levels. The “risk-off” trade is getting a tad stale so the first indication that the EU results are slightly better than expected could result in an unwinding of safe haven trades

And in other news, the incredibly well equipped and well funded Toronto based Heavy Urban Search and Rescue (HUSAR) called off their search for survivors at the Elliot Lake mall collapse, saying it was “too dangerous” DOH! What did they think it would be? Maybe Ontario would be better served by flying in search and rescue volunteers from Italy, Greece, Haiti or wherever earthquakes occur and hire them to do the looking, since digging bare handed in rubble with aftershocks threatening their very existence, is second nature to them.

Today’s Range 1.0220-1.0290

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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