LoonieViews July 6, 2012

July 6, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0154-59 Overnight Range 1.0140-1.0160

The Canadian dollar bobbed like a buoy as FX majors barely budged ahead of today’s US and Canadian employment numbers. Yesterdays ADP data hinted at a better than expect US payrolls report (Forecast +100K) but a print north of 150K will be needed to get the ball rolling. The bar for the Canadian data is set pretty low as well; with forecasts of a 5K gain. The ECB rate cut yesterday to 0.75 coupled with poor data from Spain have handed market control back to the pessimists which is why global equity indices including NY equity futures are all in the red. WTI oil is $85.57/bbl and gold is $1,594.98

The short term USD/CAD technicals remain bearish US dollars. A move above 1.0160 will shift sentiment to neutral and see a return to at least 1.0220. The 200 day moving average, now at 1.0114 has survived a couple of tests and a move below will yield 1.0060. For today, USD support is at 1.0014, 1.0090 and 1.0060. Resistance is at 1.0160, 1.0190 and 1.0220

The Canadian dollar could see a jump at 10 am today with the release of the IVEY Purchasing Managers Survey if it beats forecasts of 57.5 and comes in higher than 60.

And in other news, San Diego’s July 4th fireworks display was curtailed at the beginning when an “oops” caused the entire show to go off at once turning an 18 minute show into a 15 second extravaganza. Definitely a case of premature illumination.

Today’s Range 1.0080-1.0160

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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