LoonieViews July 13, 2012

July 13, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0155-60 Overnight Range 1.0153-1.0203

The Canadian dollar will “get it’s motor running, head out on the Highway, looking for adventure, In whatever comes its way” as it attempts to break strong support in the 1.0150-60 area on this Friday the 13th. Once again traders are confused and torn between pessimism due to the Moody’s double notch downgrade of Italy (to Baa2) or optimistic because China announced GDP growth of 7.7%. China’s announcement was in line with expectations but it was enough to boost commodity prices (WTI Oil $87.05/bbl and gold $1,583.95) and light a fire under equity indices pricing. Today’s US data releases include; University of Michigan consumer confidence (forecast 73.5) and PPI (forecast -0.5% MoM, ex food and energy +0.2%)

The short term USD/CAD technicals are neutral but flirting with being bearish US dollars. A break through the 1.0150-60 zones will lead to further US dollar losses to the 200 day moving average at 1.0107. A jump back above 1.0210 signals further 1.0150-1.0250 trading. For today, USD support is at 1.0140, 1.0120 and 1.0105. Resistance is at 1.0180, 1.0220 and 1.0250.

The rise in WTI oil prices and the possibility of a better than expected U. of Mich. Consumer confidence report would give the loonie a much needed boost due to an improved outlook for US growth.

And in other news, a funeral home in Easly, South Carolina will be opening a Starbucks on-site. Now mourners can cry over the passing of a loved one or be moved to tears at paying $5.00 for a frothy frappuccino.

Today’s Range 1.0110-80

Michael O’Neill


Categories Markets

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