LoonieViews Aug. 1, 2012

August 1, 2012
USD/CAD Open 1.0008-13 Overnight Range 1.0005-1.0040

The Canadian dollar tried to check out parity again overnight, but was turned away at the door in a choppy overnight session for all G-7 currencies. Global investors have heard all the talk and now they are pleading to the gods, in this case, Bernanke and Draghi, for a sign that further action will be taken to staunch the euro zone bleeding and stimulate global growth. The first hope is that today the FOMC will signal another round of quantitative easing, although most economists are suggesting no easing before September. Tomorrow, investors are hoping that the ECB will shed some light on what actions ECB president plans after Mr. Draghi’s “…whatever it takes” comment. US data releases today include; ADP Employment survey (+120k), MBA Mortgage applications, ISM Manufacturing and of course, the FOMC. There isn’t any Canadian data today. Global Equity indices were flat to mixed and NY equity indice futures are up slightly. WTI Oil is $88.28 and gold is $1,615.07

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish USD. The US is bumping into good “hourly” support at 1.0000 ahead of downtrend channel support at 0.9980. A move back above 1.0040 would eliminate the short term downward pressure on the US dollar. For today, USD support is at 1.0000, and 0.9980. Resistance is at 1.0040 and 1.0080

The prevailing sentiment is that the FOMC will not act before September setting FX markets up for a bout of US dollar buying which will be short lived due to the ECB meeting tomorrow.

And in other news, the Daily Mail reports that upwards of 60,000 seats a day are left empty at Olympic venues, as spectators at the Tunisia-Serbia men’s volleyball game can attest. Perhaps it is because Olympic officials merely misjudged the number of people who would pay to watch men wearing thongs frolic on a make believe beach.

Today’s Range 1.0000-1.0040

Michael O’Neill


Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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