LoonieViews August 14, 2012

August 14, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9925-30 Overnight Range 0.9916-0.9940

The Canadian dollar continues to hover above the 0.9880-0.9900 support zone, unable to generate additional offence due to thin, directionless trading in the FX majors. The Euro zone GDP came out as expected (down 0.2%) although Germany surprised to the upside. Summer holiday’s and a lack of decision making summits/meetings etc in Europe mean the debt crisis will continue to fester due to a lack of leadership. However, the never-ending tensions in the Middle East, especially the risk of Iran’s nuclear reactors being bombed, should keep oil prices firm. CNOOC’s bid for Nexxen will also temper CAD$ selling. Global equity indices including NY equity Indice futures are all in the green. WTI Oil is $93.14 and gold is $1,611.91

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish USD and unchanged. The CAD$ needs to break 0.9880 to extend gains to 0.9800 and beyond while a break above 0.9980 will lead to 0.9900-1.0140 consolidation. For today, USD support is at 0.9900, 0.9880 and 0.9860. Resistance is at 0.9940, 0.9980 and 1.0010.

US economic releases today include PPI (forecast 0.2% MoM, ex food/energy 0.2% MoM) and Retail Sales (forecast 0.3%, ex autos 0.25) This data may provide the US$ with a bit of support if they beat expectations.

And in other news, a road crew in Pennsylvania, repainting highway lines, put a stripe down the middle of a critter. Rocky Raccoon had checked out of his room, unable to find Gideon’s bible. He couldn’t check it out so there was no doubt that it wouldn’t help in his revival.

Today’s Range 0.9900-0.9960

Michael O’Neill


Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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