LoonieViews August 29, 2012

August 29, 2012
USD/CAD Open 0.9889-94 Overnight Range 0.9878-96

The Canadian dollar went nowhere overnight as did the rest of the majors, content to await Bernanke’s comments from Jackson Hole. Even Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs threat of “decisive” intervention to weaken then JPY and help the economy, barely made a ripple. US data today includes; GDP (forecast 1.7%), Pending Home sales and the Beige Book. Canada releases IPP. WTI oil is $96.10/bbl and gold is $1,666.90

The short term (hourly) USD/CAD technicals are bullish USD. The 0.9840-60 support area for USD/CAD was tested again and held. A move back through resistance at 0.9900 should extend gains to a minimum of 0.9940 with 1.0040 a risk. However, within the context of a daily chart, (see below) the USD/CAD remains in a downtrend channel and US dollar strength is merely corrective. For today, USD support is at 0.9880, 0.9860 and 0.9840. Resistance is at 0.9905, 0.9940 and 0.9980

Hurricane Isaac has so far proven to be less destructive than Ivan seven years ago which will also alleviate the threat to oil refineries and rigs, reducing the pressure on oil prices. That may undermine the loonie a tad. Meanwhile, month end demand for US dollars in a thin market could lead to the USD/CAD rate spiking to 0.9980. CNOOC may be lurking in the weeds with offers to buy CAD$, even though the Nexxen acquisition has yet to be approved.

And in other news, a Canadian Senator, diagnosed with dementia and ruled legally incompetent continued to vote in the Senate until the end of June. Apparently her greatly reduced mental capacities still exceeded those of the other 105 members of the less than august body.

Today’s Range 0.9875-0.9930


Michael O’Neill


Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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