Month: November 2012

November 30, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9933-38 Overnight Range: 0.9919-0.9940

The USD/CAD rate is ending the month flirting with 0.9940, previously decent support which gave way last week. The dominant theme continues to be the fiscal cliff discussions and conflicting headline reports. Elsewhere, soft consumer price data in Japan led to USD buying on hopes of further stimulus. EUR/USD retreated from resistance at 1.3025. Canada releases GDP (forecast 0.0, MoM) which could be a catalyst for profit taking, lifting USD/CAD to 0.9960. US data includes Personal spending, Personal Income and Chicago PMI (50.5). Global equity indices and NY equity futures indexes are all in the green. WTI oil is $87.79 and gold is $1,730.90

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are mixed. USD bulls see support in the 0.9880-0.9900 level as a decent buying opportunity for a retest of 1.0040. USD bears see the bounce from 0.9900-05 as merely corrective and are happy to sell USD/CAD at 0.9940 with a stop above 0.9960. For today, USD support is at 0.9900 and 0.9880. Resistance is at 0.9940, 0.9960 and 0.9980.

The USD/CAD could be vulnerable to additional USD buying on soft Canadian GDP data and profit taking/position squaring ahead of the weekend.

And in other news, Quebec’s environment minister quit the provincial cabinet after it was revealed that he had a history of stiffing landlords for rent and his driver’s license was suspended for numerous offences. If he was truly remorseful, he would have resigned from his seat and the $125K salary plus perks that it entails.

Today’s Range 0.9910-60

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 29, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9912-17 Overnight Range: 0.9909-0.9927

The USD/CAD rate drifted lower in overnight trading as global markets continued their tepid shift into risk-seeking as optimism that a Fiscal cliff deal remains high and Greece negotiations fade out of the spotlight. Global equity indices including NY futures indexes are all higher. WTI oil is $87.97 and gold is $1,728.70. US data releases today include: Jobless claims (+390K), US GDP (2.8%) and Pending Home Sales. Canadian data includes: Industrial Production (0.1) and raw Materials.

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are bearish with the break of the 0.9920-40 support zone targeting 0.9880 enroute to 0.9630. For today, USD support is at 0.9900, and 0.9880. Resistance is pegged at 0.9930 and 0.9960.

The Canadian dollar is benefitting from the improving outlook for the US economy and the general shift into risk seeking. However, month end portfolio rebalancing could limit CAD$ gains until Monday.

And in other news, Ontario Elementary School teachers have voted to go on strike, unhappy with an average income of $80K/year for working 6 hours a day, 7 months of the year. Many teachers believe that it wasn’t for the students, it would be an ideal job.

Today’s Range 0.9880-0.9940

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 28, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9946-51 Overnight Range: 0.9931-53

The USD/CAD rate had a rather loopy overnight session, down in Asia and up in Europe. In Asia, the JPY made some gains on profit taking after the leading LDP seemingly toned down their rhetoric about the Bank of Japan. The AUD/USD and AUD/JPY both retreated in part, due to fears of an RBA rate cut. In Europe, the lack of details and clarity about the Greek deal pushed EUR/USD lower. The US government declared that ‘China is not a currency manipulator” ensuring an uninterrupted torrent of Chinese investment in US debt. With the exception of the Swiss market, all global equity indices including NY equity index futures are lower. Gold is $1,735.22 and WTI is $86.48. Data released today includes: US Home Sales (+390K) and the Fed beige Book. There is nothing from Canada.

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are bullish with the failure to break support at 0.9920 and the subsequent rally back above 0.9935. A decisive move through resistance in the 0.9950-60 zone should lead to a test of 1.0005. A move below 0.9930 argues for further 0.9920-60 consolidation. For today, USD support is at 0.9935 and 0.9920. Resistance is at 0.9960, 0.9980 and 1.0005

The Canadian dollar could be vulnerable to month end buying of US dollars and rebalancing trades in a thin trading environment.

And in other news, Angus T Jones, the ½ man in the TV show 2 and a Half Men is sheepishly apologizing for an earlier rant where he called the show “filth” and asked people not to watch it. Apparently he said "I get paid $8 million per year for playing a character who is a brain-dead stoner”. As you can probably tell, I am not acting.

Today’s Range 0.9920-0.9960

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 27, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9918-23 Overnight Range: 0.9917-0.9935

The USD/CAD rate is testing support in the 0.9920 in part due to a tenuous link suggesting that the rising Chinese Yuan bodes well for commodity currencies and in part due to the announcement of a debt deal with Greece by the EU and IMF. Since some sort of agreement was widely expected it was no surprise that the EUR/USD rally was short lived. Global equity indices and NY equity index futures liked the news and rose. Gold is at $1,748.18 and WTI oil is $87.98. There is a lot of data from the US today including: Durable goods (Forecast -0.7%, ex transportation -0.5% MoM) Richmond Fed Manufacturing index (-9), Consumer Confidence (forecast 73.0)

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are bearish following the move below the 0.9940-60 support zone and needing a decisive break of 0.9920 to extend US dollar losses to 0.9980 and then 0.9740. A move back above 0.9960 argues for more 0.9920-1.0020 consolidation. For today, USD support is at 0.9895 and 0.9880. Resistance is at 0.9930 and 0.9950

The Canadian dollar is likely to grind higher on the tepid return to risk seeking supported by an improved outlook for a soft landing in China and a retreat from the brink in the European debt crisis.

And in other news, the British government has reached across the pond to pluck former North West territory resident and current Bank of Canada governor from his perch and install him has the new Governor of the Bank of England. The Canadian Finance Minister reacted quickly. In a stunning move and in an effort to double the brain power at the Bank of Canada he reached into the Great White North and presented the new Governors of the Bank of Canada

Today’s Range 0.9880-0.9930

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 26, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9929-34 Overnight Range: 0.9918-0.9938

The USD/CAD rate cracked the 0.9940 support area on Friday but is struggling with the second level of defense at 0.9920 as the prospect of Greece getting some bail-out funds combined with the prospect of some sort of deal getting done about the US Fiscal Cliff. The US is returning from their Thanksgiving shopping spree to see global equity indices a tad lower and NY equity index futures down. Gold is $1,750.46 and WTI Oil is $87.76. There are no data releases of note.

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are bearish with the break of 0.9940 but need to break 0.9920 to confirm the start of another US dollar down-leg, aiming for 0.9630. The daily chart below identifies support from the existing USD uptrend line from the Sept. 14 low of 0.9633. Further support is derived from the 100 day moving average at 0.9929. However, the dip below the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9633-1.0445 range suggests a 1005 retracement is in the cards.

And in other news, the Toronto Argonauts won the 100th Grey Cup championship in front of a hometown crowd. The half-time show that featured Justin Bieber and Gordon Lightfoot as the CFL marketing staff attempted to appeal to the 8 year-old girl -80 year old male demographic.

Today’s Range 0.9920-60

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 23, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9966-71 Overnight Range: 0.9966-0.9982

The Canadian dollar and the rest of the majors had another quiet overnight session although the US dollar gave up a little ground. Global equity indices were mostly flat to slightly higher and NY equity indice futures are pointing higher. The EUR/USD garnered a little support from a better than expected German IFO report and traders are a wee bit optimistic that a Greek deal will get done. Canada CPI is expected to be 0.1% MoM, Core 0.2%.

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are unchanged-neutral within a 0.9940-0.9990 band. For today, USD support is at 0.9960 and 0.9940. Resistance is at 0.9990 and 1.0005

In will be another short trading day with many NY traders struggling to get into the office due to long lines of Black Friday shoppers clogging the sidewalks while contending with a wonky transit system, prone to shutting down at inconvenient times.

And in other news, Quebec’s Department of Transport failed to communicate with Hydro-Quebec while upgrading route 251 and as a result, a hydro pole was left smack in the middle of the road. Local driver’s longed for the days when they just had to worry about “a dead skunk in the middle of the highway”

Today’s Range 0.9930-90

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

November 21, 2012

USD/CAD 0.9972-77 Overnight Range: 0.9958-0.9990

The Canadian dollar drifted lower during the Asian session but recovered its losses in Europe while trading in a narrow band, Global equity indices all rose (except Australia) and NY equity indice futures are pointing higher as well. The debate surrounding the next EU zone payment to Greece is still raging, but when the dust settles, most believe that Athens will get a cheque next week. Hamas is attempting to garner worldwide sympathy to their plight with actions that even Conan would have thought barbaric helping to keep WTI elevated ($87.77).

The short term hourly USD/CAD technicals are neutral within a 0.9940-0.9990 band. The USD/CAD is still in an uptrend on the daily charts. The sloping red line on the chart below will act as support (0.9915) Below this line means we should see a return to 0.9630. A move above 1.0060 will open up a move to 1.0440.

In my humble opinion, the lack of upside momentum above 1.0030, an improving outlook towards some sort of resolution to the fiscal cliff issue, a likely deal in Greece and evidence of a pickup in the US housing market favor 0.9915 breaking first.

The next Loonieviews will be Monday November 26

And in other news, Toronto city council, forever crying poor, have provided prime city real estate to 93 groups who pay a staggering $2.00 per year for rent. Group such as “buddies in Bad times” theater, Toronto Artscape Inc and the Canadian Stage company have been given these sweet heart deals. Perhaps they need a healthy dose of private sector reality-If the public doesn’t want your product enough for you to generate revenue to cover your costs, then they can join the many other ventures on the scrap heap

Today’s Range 0.9930-90

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

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