Month: January 2013

January 31, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0018-23 Overnight Range: 1.0005-1.0034

Canadian dollar trading was livelier than usual in a choppy overnight session, livened up by monthly rebalancing flows. Yesterday’s disappointing US GDP data undermined markets as did mixed economic data from Germany. A surprising $3.5 billion dollar hit to Deutschebank as well as news that UK banks are on the hook for compensation due to interest rate swap sales techniques helped to push the EUR/USD lower. Global equity indices and NY equity index futures are all down.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are modestly bearish US dollars while trading below the 1.0040-50 area but need support in the 1.0000-1.0010 zone is thwarting further US losses to 0.9980. A move through 0.9980 removes the US dollar upside threat and would argue for further 0.9940-1.0040 consolidation. On the other hand, US dollar strength above 1.0050 would target 1.0100. For today, USD support is at 1.0005 (overnight low) and 0.9980. Resistance is at 1.0040, 1.0060 and 1.0080.

FX trading today may be kind of wonky as demand from month end rebalancing requirements clashes with a desire to sit on the sidelines awaiting tomorrows US payrolls report

And in other news, court officials in Iran have adapted a medieval sausage cutter, cleverly named the iChop, for dealing with criminals. If you are a convicted thief or adulterer in this stone age land, court officials grab your hand, stick in beneath “the press” and voila, instant amputation. The versatile machine can be calibrated to remove fingers, hands, arms and legs. In the iChop 2 version, the entire criminal is inserted and turned into minced meat.

Today’s Range 0.9980-1.0050

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

January 30, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0024-20 Overnight Range: 1.0008-1.0033

The Canadian dollar managed to hang on to most of yesterday’s gains in a rather quiet USD/CAD session overnight. However, the other majors were a tad livelier with EUR/USD triggering stops on the break of 1.3500, a level not seen in over a year in an apparent nod to expectations that today’s FOMC meeting will be mostly unchanged. Asian equity indexes were higher but European equity indices and NY equity futures indexes are modestly lower. The US data releases today include: ADP employment, GDP (QoQ), GDP Price index and the FOMC. WTI is $97.92 and gold is $1,666.07

The short term USD/CAD technicals have flipped back to bearish USD on the decisive break of support at 1.0060 and again at 1.0040. The USD/CAD rate is likely to retest 0.9910 but there is a lot of USD support to chop through ahead of this level, including 1.0010, 0.9980 and 0.9950. A move back above 1.0050 would negate this view and suggest more 1.0010-1.0100 consolidation. The Green lines represent support and resistance.

And in other news, the RCMP in Halifax have charged a man and a teenager with theft after the duo allegedly robbed a Tim Hortons, making off with cash and donuts. The cash has been recovered and the RCMP in the process of collecting the donuts.

Today’s Range 1.0040-1.0070

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

January 29, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0058-63 Overnight Range: 1.0045-1.066

The Canadian dollar edged higher in another lack-luster overnight session garnering a wee bit of a lift from a slightly higher AUD/USD following an improved business confidence index down under. The USD/JPY retreated as traders await tomorrows FOMC statement and ignoring news of Japans $1.03 trillion dollar budget. Asian equity indices were flat to up a tad while European equity indices were mostly down slightly. NY equity futures indexes are pointing lower. Gold is $1,662.71 and WTI is $96.56. US data releases today include S&P C/S Home price index and Consumer Confidence

The short term USD/CAD technicals are mixed. USD bulls view the retreat from 1.0100 yesterday as consolidation and an opportunity to buy US dollars. US bears see the failure to extend gains above 1.0100 and the move below 1.0060 as evidence that the short term USD rally is over, confirmed by a move below 1.0040. For today, USD support is at 1.0040 and 1.0010. Resistance is at 1.0070 and 1.0100

And in other news, Americans are in a tizzy due to a National Chicken council report that there may be a shortage of chicken wings for Sunday’s super bowl. Officials are gob-smacked and are wringing their hands asking “how can this be?

(PS NOT a self portrait)

Today’s Range 1.0040-1.0070

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

January 28, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0085-89 Overnight Range: 1.0060-1.0100

The Canadian dollar stayed on the defensive in a quiet start to the week. Australia was closed due to Australian Day festivities and Asian traders waited for the European session to kick-off. This week’s FONC meeting was another excuse to start the week on the fence. The EUR/USD retreated from earlier highs on profit taking and GBP/USD continued to slide but bounced off the lows. This week’s themes are setting out to be economic improvement in Europe, very weak UK economy, slow US growth but improved outlook for global growth as evidenced by rising commodity prices. WTI oil is $96.19 and gold is $1,657.41. US data on tap today includes: Durable Goods Orders (2.0%, ex-Transp 0.8%)) Pending Home Sales (Dec 0.0)

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish. The break of previous resistance in the 1.0050-60 zone will act as support while the US dollar consolidates recent gains before its next push to test 1.0140. A break of this level would yield 1.0240. A move below 1.0050 argues for a dip to 1.0010 ahead of 0.9980. For today, USD support is at 1.0060, 1.0050 and 1.0010. Resistance is at 1.0100 (overnight high), 1.0120 and 1.0140

Hourly USD/CAD Chart- Green lines represent support

And in other news, Ontarians awoke on Sunday and swelled with Pride to news that Kathleen Wynn is the new Premier of Ontario.

It is rumoured that one of first acts as Premier will be to replace the stuffy, stale Ontario flag

With this Flag, which better represents all the Ontario political parties that she will need to jump into bed with to

maintain her minority government.

Today’s Range 1.0060-1.0110

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

January 25, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0069-74 Overnight Range: 1.0021-1.0072

The Canadian dollar drifted lower during the Asian session and then tanked during the European day, crushed in part, by relentless demand for EUR/CAD. The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY surged on the back of a stronger than expected German IFO survey and news that European banks have applied to repay EUR 137.2 billion of long term emergency funding loans. That put the haggis in Robbie Burns Day. Asian equity indices were flat to higher, European equity indices are all higher and NY equity index futures are in the green as well. WTI oil is $96.32 and gold is $1,661.65.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish. The US dollar has even thought of retracing as it plows through resistance at 1.0020 and 1.0040. It is currently testing the defences of the 1.0070-80 zone. If this level goes than the USD/CAD is likely to rise to 1.0240

Daily USD/CAD Chart

Daily EUR/CAD chart

The break of resistance at 1.3440 suggests further EUR/CAD uptside to 1.3770

And in other news, an uptight American parenting group, the Parents Television Council (a god-fearing but likely heavily armed bunch of do-gooders) is in a lather over a Kate Upton and Mercedes-Benz commercial that features the bikini clad model washing a car in front of a boy’s football team. Apparently they don’t like the message that the commercial implies-“even you can get a SPORTS ILLUSTRATED cover girl to wash your car, if you buy a Benz.

Today’s Range 1.0060-1.0140

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

January 23, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0010-15 Overnight Range: 0.9990-1.0016

The Canadian dollar barely budged during the overnight session but came under early selling pressure as North American traders found their desks. The USD jumped vs. the JPY on new verbal intervention while the Aussie and Kiwi enjoyed a brief bought of strength vs. the US following a strong flash PMI from China. The gains were quickly erased during the European session. US data releases today include: Jobless Claims (forecast +355K) and Leading Indicators (0.4%). No releases from Canada

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish. Yesterday’s break of Key US dollar resistance levels at 0.9950 and 0.9980 put 1.0060 clearly in the sights. Only a move through 0.9950 will negate the pressure. For today, USD support is at 0.9980 and 0.9960. Resistance is at 1.0015, 1.0040 and 1.0070

And in other news, Calgary Police officers were caught on camera, drag racing from a stop light to a Tim Horton’s. The only government employees who move faster are Ontario Teachers at quitting time. Of course, the cops will not be disciplined because “without a time stamp on the video, it would be difficult to identify the officers”. Apparently, asking the owner of the video for the day and time when the movie was shot is too taxing for Calgary’s finest.

Watch the race- http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/WeirdNews/2013/01/23/20520746.html

Today’s Range 0.9920-0.9960

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

The USD/CAD has soared 70 basis points on the back of a rather dovish bank of Canada statement. As unanimously expected, the Bank left interest rates unchanged but what caught traders by surprise was this statement: Core inflation has softened by more than the Bank had expected, with more muted price pressures across a wide range of goods and services, consistent with the unexpected increase in excess capacity. Total CPI inflation has also been lower than anticipated, reflecting developments in core inflation and weaker-than-projected gasoline prices. Total CPI inflation is expected to remain around 1 per cent in the near term before rising gradually, along with core inflation, to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2014 as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.

The US dollar smashed through resistance at 0.9950 and triggered stops above 0.9980.

Today’s move is likely a short term game-changer for USD/CAD traders. The move above 0.9980 confirmed earlier signals that the 6 month long USD/CAD downtrend had ended with the retracement from 0.9830 breaking the down trend line at 0.9920. Further confirmation occurred when the 200 day moving average at 0.9983 gave way. Retracements should be limited to 0.9950.

For now, USD support is at 0.9980 and 0.9950. Resistance is at 1.0010 and 1.0070

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099