Loonieviews February 28, 2013


February 28, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0243-48 Overnight Range: 1.0214-1.0247

The Canadian dollar continued its retreat from 1.0300 seen two days ago with yesterday’s move below support at 1.0240 causing an extension to 1.0214 overnight. This may just be a bout of weak long’s trimming positions. The USD/JPY climbed higher on the back of both month end demand for US dollars and the formal nomination of Kuroda as the new head of the bank of Japan. The EUR/USD is slightly lower from yesterday’s close with Italian election results continuing to weigh on investor sentiment and news of the Netherland’s budget woes. Asian and European equity indices are all higher as are NY equity index futures. Gold is $1,591.20 and WTI is $92.69. Canadian data releases include: Current Account (Q4 -17.0 bio), Industrial Production (Jan.0.2% MoM) US data releases include: GDP (Q4 0.5%), Jobless Claims (360k), Chicago PMI (Feb. 54.3)

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.0250. USD bears view the failure at 1.0300 combined with the retracement below 1.0240 as evidence that the most recent USD rally is over, looking for a move below 1.0210 to extend USD losses to 1.0110. US dollar bulls view the retreat from 1.0300 as merely corrective and look to buy USD/CAD on dips between 1.0180 and 1.0210. For today, USD support is at 1.0230 and 1.0210. Resistance is at 1.0260 and 1.0280

And in other news, an Australian billionaire, Clive Palmer has announced plans to build a replica of the Titanic. Below is an artists rendering of proposed vessel

Which is reportedly going to be skippered by none other than Captain Francesco Schettin0 (Capt. Coward)

Resulting in Titanic ll, the sequel

Today’s Range 1.0230-1.0260

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

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: Loonieviews February 27, 2013


February 27, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0257-62 Overnight Range: 1.0249-1.0272

The Canadian dollar traded sideways overnight and is starting the Toronto session where it started yesterday. Bernanke went to great pains yesterday to alleviate any concerns that QE would end anytime soon. Equity markets liked what they heard with Asian and European equity indices all higher (accept Nikkei) and NY equity futures indexes rising as well. Aside from further Bernanke testimony today, the US releases Durable Goods ( Jan -4.4% MoM) which could undermine the US dollar. Gold is $1,605.50 and WTI is $92.77

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish while the US dollar trades above 1.0240 looking for an eventual test of 1.0440. However, upside US dollar momentum has waned around the 1.0280. For today, USD support is at 1.0240 and 1.0210. Resistance is at 1.0280 and 1.0310.

And in other news, a Vancouver area minor hockey coach was given 15 days in jail for tripping an opposing team’s player (peewees) during the post-game handshake. The kid was not injured. The penalty seems a tad harsh when you consider that Todd Bertuzzi of the Vancouver Canuks sucker punched Steve Moore and then proceed to drive his face into the ice five years ago. Moore’s never played another shift while Todd Bertuzzi makes millions for the Detroit Red Wings.

Today’s Range 1.0240-1.0310

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

Loonieviews February 26, 2013


February 26, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0257-61 Overnight Range: 1.0238-1.0267

The Canadian dollar is off its lows in a quiet overnight session for the loonie. The JPY continued to drift lower and the EUR/USD managed to grind out small gains after yesterday’s Italian election inspired sell-off. Italy appears to have achieved the government that the USA is heading for which may add another element of interest to Bernanke’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony today. The CNOC/Nexen takeover closed yesterday which may possibly lead to some CAD$ demand over the next few days. Today’s US data includes; Dec. Housing Price index (0.0% MoM), Consumer Confidence ( Feb. 61.0), New Home Sales ( Jan 0.381m) Asian and European equity indices are all lower but NY equity futures indexes are pointing higher. Gold is $1,594.60. WTI is $92.50

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish with the break of the 1.0230-50 resistance zone but the lack of upside momentum is concerning. For this new up-leg to be sustained, the USD/CAD rate needs to stay above 1.0220. A move below 1.0230 would argue for 1.0170-1.0270 consolidation. For today, USD support is at 1.0140, 1.0230 and 1.0210. Resistance is at 1.0270, and 1.0310.

And in other news, the union representing Ontario elementary teachers is fighting back against the provincial governments attempt to reduce wages and increase class sizes releasing a photo of what they say is the governments ideal of the next generation kindergarten teacher.

Today’s Range 1.0220-1.02570

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

Loonieviews February 25, 2013


February 25, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0227-32 Overnight Range: 1.0206-1.0238

The Canadian dollar stayed on the defensive overnight but managed to stave off attempts to drive it through the 1.0240 resistance area. The USD/JPY rallied on reports that Haruhiko Kuroda would be named BoJ governor as he is known to support a weaker JPY. The EUR/USD firmed slightly on rather dubious optimism surrounding the Italian election results while GBP got spanked on Friday’s Moody’s downgrade which cost the UK their AAA rating. Canada’s BoC governor, Mark Carney gives a speech today which could provide some trading ammunition. Global Equity indices are all higher this morning as are MU equity index futures. WTI oil is $94.10 and gold is $1,591.50

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish but running into resistance in the 1.0230-50 zone. Remaining CAD$ bulls should throw in the towel if the 1.0250 level gives way which opens up a move to 1.0440 and 1.0630… For today, USD support is at 1.0220 and 1.0190. Resistance is at 1.0240, 1.0250 and 1.0280

And in other news, Argo won the Oscar for the best picture although to be accurate, it should be the best picture for Fiction, Fantasy and the American Way. The actual working title of the movie was “Argo-A life of Pi” as it is a depiction of events that could have occurred in the sun-baked imagination of a Hollywood screenwriter or ten.

Today’s Range 1.0215-1.0250

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

Loonieviews February 22, 2013


February 22, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0190-95 Overnight Range: 1.0161-1.0196

The Canadian dollar rally from yesterday afternoon continued throughout the Asian session but couldn’t crack US dollar support at 1.0160 and gave back most of the ground when Europe came in. The 8:30 am release of poor retail sales data for Canada ignited another wave of selling and the USD/CAD rate is currently 1.0228-33. AUD/USD made some decent gains on positive remarks by the RBA governor. In Europe, better than expected German IFO data offset to a degree, disappointing LTRO payments. Asian (except Hang Seng) and European equity indices are all higher as are NY equity index futures. Canadian data releases today include, CPI (Actual-Core 1.0%, YoY) and Dec. Retail Sales (Actual forecast -2.1%) WTI is $93.19 and gold is $1,579.50

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish. The USD/CAD has been in a nice steady uptrend channel for the past week with the break of USD resistance at 1.0080. It is currently bound by 1.0170 on the bottom and 1.0230 on the top. For today, USD support is at 1.0180 and 1.0160. Resistance is at 1.0230 and 1.0250

And in other news, al-Qaeda terrorist, fleeing Timbuktu, left behind training documents, one of which listed “22 ways to avoid a drone attack” Included in the list were such gems as “hide under thick trees” and my favorite “ Dismount from camel or goat, face Mecca, bend low, grab ankles, praise Allah and kiss your ass goodbye”

Today’s Range 1.0180-1.0240

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099

IS THE LOONIE HEADING SOUTH?


The loonie appears to be heading south and not just because of the frosty temperatures across the land. In fact, a decisive break above the 1.0230-50 zone would terminate the  long term USD/CAD downtrend channel, intact since September 2009. exposing 1.1220 which is the 50% fibo retracement of the 2009-20013 range of 0.9370-1.1.3040.

Far-fetched=perhaps, but there are a number of factors/events etc that suggests that the loonie has seen its best days for the foreseeable future.

1) There is a school of thought that suggests that global investors are shifting away from the long term safe haven/yield play following the financial meltdown with the improving outlook for Europe and the USA, leading to an unwinding of long CAD$ positions.

2)The latest FOMC minutes suggest that the QE program will end sooner rather than later which will lead toUS dollar demand, undermining the loonie.

3) The sluggish Canadian economy has crushed any hopes of a near term rate hike in Canada. Canadian Budget and trade surpluses have turned negative, eliminating two previously bullish CAD$ factors.

4)The Canadian dollar doesn’t appear to be deriving any more benefit from oil prices in the $85-105 range and the drop in gold prices appears to be another negative CAD$ factor.

However, resistance in the 1.0230-50 zone should be significant and a failure to break through will likely result in a prolonged period of 0.9980-1.0250 consolidation.

Loonieviews February 19, 2013


February 19, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0112-17 Overnight Range: 1.0103-1.0128

The Canadian dollar has lost further ground over the long weekend undermined by position squaring/profit taking, quasi-decoupling from WTI pricing, weak domestic economic data and a lack of direction in the majors. Currency War rhetoric has diminished due to the G-20 agreeing that all countries are allowed to use domestic macroeconomic policies to stimulate their economies. So it’s not a war, it’s a race to see who can devalue the fastest. A US internet security firm, Mandiant, has released a report accusing the Chinese military of a slew of hacking attacks. It is either true, or Tom Clancy has adopted a novel way of promoting his latest novel Threat Vector. Meanwhile, gold is trading at $1,613.40 and WTI is at $95.76 Asian equity indexes were mixed with the Hang Seng and the Nikkei down while the ASX 200 gained. European equity indices and NY equity index futures are all higher.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish looking for a run to 1.0250 following the break of resistance at both 1.0040 and 1.0080. For today, USD support is at 1.0110 and 1.0080. Resistance is at 1.0140 and 1.0175

And in other news, Canada Goose scored a marketing bonanza when the 2013 Swim suit cover girl Kate Upton displayed her Canada Goose bumps on the cover of Sports Illustrated magazine. R.L. Stein was not amused.

Today’s Range 1.0110-1.0150

The content and opinions expressed within this commentary are solely those of the author(s) and are not necessarily shared by Jitney Trade. The data and comments provided herein are for informational purposes only and must not be construed as an indication or guarantee of any kind of what the future performance of the concerned markets will be. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and foreign exchange products and is not suitable for all investors. Contact your account representative for more information on these risks. Information and opinions contained herein come from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. Please carefully consider your financial condition prior to making any trading decisions.

Michael O’Neill

Vice President, FX Trading

Tél.647-345-9099