Loonieviews March 28, 2013

March 28, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0156-61 Overnight Range 1.0154-1.0174

The Canadian dollar rally continued to stall in the 1.0150 area overnight. Residual month end and quarter end demand for US dollars for portfolio rebalancing and repatriation may limit CAD$ gains today. The USD is starting today close to where it ended yesterday against the majors. The FX market remains wary of further negative sentiment stemming from the EU/Cyprus bank deposit raid ahead of the long Easter weekend. Today’s data releases from the US and Canada could spark a bit of a flurry of trading before lunch. Data on tap from the US includes: GDP (Q4 0.4%) Jobless claims (340k), Chicago PMI (56.5) Canadian data includes GDP (Jan.0.1%)

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.0170 but need 1.0150 to crumble to see US losses extend to 1.0110 initially. For today, USD support is at 1.0150, 1.0130 and 1.0110. Resistance is at 1.0170 and 1.0180

1 hour USD/CAD chart

And in other news, when Volker Kraft, a German pensioner heard about the EU Sanctioned raid on bank deposits in Cyprus, he quickly decided not to keep all his eggs in one basket….

Today’s Range 1.0120-80

Michael O’Neill



Loonieviews March 26, 2013

March 26, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0200-05 Overnight Range 1.0193-1.0220

The Canadian dollar drifted higher during the Asian session but gave back all the gains in the European session. Overnight, Cyprus issues continue to dive markets, mostly on the fear that if the EU could raid bank deposits there, what about other countries needing help? The outlook for the Euro zone and American economies continues to diverge with the improving US growth outlook helping to drive EUR/USD lower. US Data on tap today includes: Feb. Durable Goods (Forecast 3.8%), Mar. Consumer Confidence (68.0), Case Schiller Home Prices (7.9%) Gold is at $1,599.50 and WTI Oil is $95.45 Asian equity indices were mixed and European equity indices were mostly modestly higher. US equity index futures are up to start the day.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.0240 but need to break through 1.0180 to see and extension of US dollar losses to 1.0110. For today, USD support is at 1.0180 and 1.0160. Resistance is at 1.0220 and 1.0240

And in other news, The new Chinese ambassador to Canada arrived in Toronto yesterday

Today’s Range 1.0160-1.0220

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews March 25, 2013

March 25, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0190-95 Overnight Range 1.0190-

The Canadian dollar rallied on the break of support at 1.0220 and will soon be sniffing around the next support zone in the 1.0150-80 area. The catalyst for the move was mostly technical with the break of the USD/CAD uptrend channel and the triggering of stops. Meanwhile, Cyprus voted to give bank depositors (mostly foreign and mostly Russian) a 30% haircut on bank deposits while closing one bank, in an effort to secure EU bail-out funds and stay in the Euro zone. It’s rather poetic that Russians, who have stiffed investors before (most recently 1998,) get a taste of their own medicine. The EUR/USD got a lift on the bail-out news but that was short lived on concerns that the ongoing Euro zone issues will continue to depress the EUR. However, global equity indices liked the Cyprus news and are all higher including US equity index futures. Gold is $1,603.70 and WTI Oil is $94.30

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish with the break of 1.0220 which negates the USD/CAD uptrend channel that had been intact since mid-January. The USD/CAD should test support in the 1.0150-80 zone and if this area is broken, further gains to 1.0090 will be seen. For today, USD support is at 1.0180, 1.0150, and 1.0120. Resistance is at 1.0220 and 1.0250

And in other news, the Montana Senate has voted to allow residents to salvage road kill. Permits will be issued to allow the harvesting of deer, elk, and moose and the meat could be made available to local food banks. Bonus! These Food Banks may qualify for “Michelin Star” ratings or even a Goodyear Tire Seal of approval

Today’s Range 1.0160-1.0210

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews March 23, 2013

March 22, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0249-54 Overnight Range 1.0233-1.0264

The Canadian dollar marked time in a dull overnight session as uncertainty surrounding the Cyprus bail-out talks gave traders and investors an excuse to extend lunch. Cypriot politicians are debating legislation in order to continue to receive bail-out money leaving markets vulnerable to headline risk. The JPY enjoyed a bit of a rally while disappointing IFO data from Germany gave rise to ECB rate cut speculation. While GBP managed to hang on to its recent gains against the US dollar and the euro. There is a dearth of data from the US and Canada today making for a dull day. Global equity indices are a mixed bag-the Nikkei and the Hang Seng closed down while the ASX 200 was slightly higher. European indices are mixed while NY equity index futures are up. Gold is at $1,611.10 and WTI oil is $93.00

The short term USD/CAD technicals are still bearish USD/CAD while trading below 1.0260, (on an hourly chart) but need to break of 1.0205 to extend US dollar losses to 1.0180 and then 1.0110. This would also negate the existing USD/CAD uptrend channel. (intact since mid-January) For today, USD support is at 1.0225 and 1.0205. Resistance is at 1.0260 and 1.0280

And in other news, check out this link


Today’s Range 1.0220-1.0260

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews March 21, 2013

March 21, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0223-28 Overnight Range 1.0225-1.0265

The Canadian dollar squeaked out a modest gain overnight, propelled by weak stop losses being triggered on the move below 1.0240 and selling of EUR/CAD. The Asian session started on a positive note with better than expected Chinese PMI data but turned sour in Europe. A weak German Manufacturing report and an ECB announcement that Cyprus would be cut off from emergency funds unless it agreed to a bailout from the European Union and the IMF, put a damper on EUR trading. One bright patch was a better than expected Retail Sales report in the UK giving cable a boost. US data releases today include: Jobless Claims (342k), Housing Price Index (Jan 0.7% MoM) Leading Indicators and Philly Fed. Canada releases Retail Sales (Jan 0.9% MoM, ex-autos 0.3%). Global equity indices (except the Nikkei) are all lower while NY equity index futures are flat.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish USD/CAD while trading below 1.0260, looking for a break of 1.0220 to extend US dollar losses to 1.0180.

And in other news, a lucky New York family picked up a bowl at a garage sale for the tidy sum of $3.00, displayed it on their fireplace mantel for a couple of years and then learned that the “Ding” bowl was from the Northern Song Dynasty. It sold at auction on March 13 for $2.2 million. Now that’s a Super Bowl.

Today’s Range 1.0180-1.0240

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews March 20, 2013

March 20, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0245-50 Overnight Range 1.0243-1.0275

The USD/CAD had another uneventful overnight session but showed signs of life as North American desks started coming to life. The catalyst appears to be a step back from the brink in the EU/Cyprus negotiations after local politicians voted against raiding bank accounts. The prevailing sentiment that the amount of money at stake “is too small” and therefore a resolution will be forthcoming. GBP/USD also got a boost when the minutes of the BoE policy meaning exposed concern about that stimulus measures were eroding the BoE’s credibility. Today’s FOMC meeting should be uneventful. Global equity indices were mostly higher and NY equity index futures are up, to start the day. WTI oil is $92.97 and gold is $1,608.30

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish USD/CAD while trading above 1.0240 (on hourly chart, below), looking for another test of 1.0280. However, a move through support at 1.0240 will negate the short term US dollar uptrend and extend US dollar losses to 1.0210 and perhaps 1.0180. For today, USD support is at 1.0240 and 1.0210. Resistance is at 1.0280 and 1.0310.

And in other news, a Colorado Springs man was out walking his dog when a “mountain lion jumped out of the bushes, grabbed the dog then took off and ate it”. Wild Life officials tracked and killed the cougar as the animal was clearly guilty of “Dine and Dachsund”

Today’s Range 1.0210-1.0270

Michael O’Neill


:Loonieviews March 19, 2013

March 19, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0227-32 Overnight Range 1.0216-1.0234

The USD/CAD went nowhere overnight in a subdued session, hung over from St. Paddy’s Day celebrations and bummed out over the blanket of snow across the GTA to greet the first day of Spring. In Asia, the USD/JPY rose on anticipation that the incoming BoJ officials will start QE very soon while the AUD/USD firmed on positive comments from RBA officials. The European session was dominated by Cyprus fears. The Cyprus parliament was reported to likely vote to reject the EU plan (12:00 noon) to hoover cash from depositor accounts which may further erode the EUR/USD. Gold is $1,601.80 and WTI oil is $93.79. The Nikkei rose but the rest of the global equity indices are down with NY equity futures indexes also flat to down tiny.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish USD/CAD while trading above 1.0215 (green line) but need to see a break through the 1.0240-50 resistance zone to extend gains to 1.0280. A move below 1.0215 suggests a further dip to 1.0180. For today, USD support is at 1.0215, 1.0205 and 1.0180. Resistance is at 1.0240, 1.0255 and 1.0280

And in other news, Toronto Police are warning citizens of the dangers of seeking out illegal butt enhancement treatments, saying women are putting their lives at risk. As usual, Ontario politicians rushed to jump on the “bigger bum bandwagon” but one unlucky MPP apparently wasn’t sure of the concept.

Today’s Range 1.0210-1.0250

Michael O’Neill