Loonieviews april 28, 2013

April 29, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0138-43 Overnight Range 1.0135-1.0172

The Canadian dollar is starting the week with a little spring in its step with the news that the LEAFS are in the play-offs for the first time in 9 years. The US dollar cracked through the 1.0160-80 support zone on the back of widespread US dollar weakness. Trading was lighter than usual due to Japanese “Golden Week” holidays. Concerns over recent signs that the US economic recovery is faltering coupled with a modest relief rally following Italy being able to form a new government undermined the US dollar in a sluggish overnight session. This is a big week for markets and volatility should rise as we get US payrolls on Friday and a very possible ECB rate cut. Global equity indices were flat to slightly higher and NY equity index futures are also in positive territory, gold is $1,471.50 and WTI is $93.34

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish on the break of support at 1.0220 and confirmed by the move through the 1.0160-80 area targeting 1.0080, the last line of defence ahead of 0.9830. For today, USD support is at 1.0130, 1.010 and 1.0080. Resistance is at 1.0160 and 1.0180

And in other news, in what appears to be a blatant attempt to garner favor with PETA spokeswoman and ex-wife Pamela Anderson, Motley Crue drummer, Tommy Lee has jumped on the chuckwagon and penned a letter to Alberta’s Premier Alison Redford, to protest the Stampede’s Rangeland Derby. In the letter, he wrote addressed the premier as ‘Dude”, evidence that he may have enjoyed one spliff too many while “smoking in the boy’s room”, “down at the whiskey”

Today’s Range 1.0110-60

Michael O’Neill



Loonieviews April 26, 2013

April 26, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0195-00 Overnight Range 1.0180-1.0205

The Canadian dollar consolidated yesterday’s gains overnight awaiting the Q1 US GDP data (forecast +3.0% YoY) and the Reuters/U. of Michigan consumer confidence Index (73.2) The JPY rallied after the BoJ left policy unchanged, delaying what many see as the inevitable break above 100. In Europe, the EUR/USD is off the day’s best levels in part due to anticipation of US dollar gains following a strong GDP print. Gold is $1,467.50 and WTI oil is $93.01. Asian equity indices closed flat to modestly higher while European equity indices and NY equity index futures are down.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bearish following the move through the 1.0220-30 support zone and are looking for a break of 1.0180 to extend USD losses to 1.0140. A move back above 1.0230 suggests further 1.0180-1.0280 consolidation.

And in other news, executives at Loblaws/Superstore’s, purveyor of such haute couture as “ Joe Fresh” may be getting their Bangladesh made skivvies in a knot as news comes to light that some of their clothing line was manufactured in the collapsed garment factory. This is the same company that charges shoppers 5 cents a bag to garner brownie points as an environmentally friendly retailer, while simultaneously supporting the exploitation of impoverished workers. Loblaws-Home of No Name and No Shame.

Today’s Range 1.0180-1.0230

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews April 25, 2013

April 24, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0227-32 Overnight Range 1.0225-1.0260

The Canadian dollar idled during a quiet Asian session as both Australia and New Zealand were closed for ANZAC Day. The USD/JPY again rejected attempts to push through 100. The dollar retreated a tad in Europe, with GBP/USD spiking higher on better than expected GDP (Q1 GDP +0.3% vs. expectations of 0.1%) avoiding a recession and reducing the need for additional QE. European equity indices are mixed and NY equity index futures are higher. Gold is $1,446.90 and WTI oil is $91.84.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are modestly bearish with the break of 1.0250 but there is plenty of support between 1.0180 and 1.0220 which will slow US dollar losses. For today, USD support is at 1.0220, 1.0205 and 1.0190. Resistance is at 1.0250 and 1.0280

The Canadian dollar has been identified as one of the major currencies will very large short positions (long US$) suggesting that the “smart money” expects further US dollar gains toward 1.0440 and higher. If the USD/CAD fails to extend gains, the dollar will become increasingly vulnerable to a sell-off. Perhaps negative CAD$ sentiment is overdone. For one, Canadian interest rates are not going lower.

And in other news, a thirsty Scotch aficionado, strolled into a LCBO and stuck a bottle of Glenfiddich Single Malt scotch under his coat and hasn’t been seen since. The bottle was worth $26,000. In actual fact, the scotch was likely worth only $10 bucks, the rest of the price was composed of federal and provincial taxes.

Today’s Range 1.0210-50

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews April 23, 2013

April 23, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0255-60 Overnight Range 1.0252-1.0272

The Canadian dollar just spun its wheels overnight, going nowhere in another sloppy directionless market. Another Japanese Lifeco said that they may increase overseas investments, boosting USD/JPY but not enough for it to crack 100. The Kiwi rose on bullish comments from the CB governor. In Europe, the EUR/USD was lightly stung by another disappointing report from Germany, this time from the IFO business climate index (104.4 vs. Mar 106.7) Global equity indices are all higher (Except FTSE) as are NY equity index futures. Gold is $1,421.40 and WTI is $89.68

The short term USD/CAD technicals are neutral within a narrow 1.0250-1.0300 band, needing a break either side to shift to a bullish or bearish stance. The weekly chart below shows the USD/CAD uptrend and highlights the importance of the 1.0280-1.0310 zone. A break here would argue for further USD gains to 1.0600

And in other news, on Saturday, a customer and a teller were shot by bank bandits in Toronto. The customer tackled one thug who promptly shot a teller in the leg and the customer in the belly before getting away. Police do not recommend that civilians interact with gun toting thugs but denied that they would charge the customer with “improperly storing ammunition”. Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau remained perplexed at the bandit’s actions and called for a committee to study the root causes of disenfranchised youth suggesting the banks were at fault “ it’s the lure of easy money, it’s got a very strong appeal”.

Today’s Range 1.0250-90

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews April 23, 2013

April 23, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0250-55 Overnight Range 1.0248-68

The Canadian dollar drifted lower overnight on the back of disappointing PMI data from China and Europe which undermines the global growth equation. The USD/JPY took the opportunity to shake out weak longs, triggering stops at 0.9880 while the EUR/USD touched 1.2975, giving rise to ECB rate cut chatter for next week. Canada releases retail Sales data today (FEB. forecast +0.3% MoM, ex-autos 0.5%). The ASX 200 rose but the Nikkei and the Hang Seng declined. European equity indexes are all higher as are NY equity index futures. Gold is $1,415.30 and WTI oil is $88.45.

The short term USD/CAD technicals remain bullish. A move above 1.0300 could extend to 1.0440 while a move below 1.0250 opens up a return to 1.0180.

And in other news, Toronto City councillors are debating a plan to hire a dozen Urban Park Rangers to “communicate, and connect with residents using city parks, while supporting park monitoring and educating users on city by-laws”.


Today’s Range 1.0230-00

Michael O’Neill


Loonieviews April 22, 2013

April 22, 2013
USD/CAD Open 1.0250-55 Overnight Range 1.0248-68

The Canadian dollar is adrift within a narrow 20 point band undermined in part by sales of CAD/JPY and soft commodity prices. Meanwhile, it was same-old, same-old in Asian with as USD/JPY tried and failed to crack 100.00. The EUR/USD failed to garner much support even though Italy’s election of an 87 year old guy was viewed as a good thing in debt markets. Global equity indices including NY equity index futures are all higher. Gold is at $1,431.80, up $36.20 and WTI oil is sloshing around at $88.61.

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish within a 1.0230-1.0300 band. A break above 1.0300 risks a move to 1.040 while a move below 1.0230 targets 1.0160 and then 1.0080

And in other news, authorities in Massachusetts placed about 1 million residents under “house arrest” and deployed over 9,000 police officers and soldiers in a failed attempt to locate the Marathon bombing suspect. It was only AFTER, when residents were allowed to leave their homes, that an eagle eyed boating enthusiast located the perp, and called the police. In a related story, almost exactly 238 years to the day of Paul Reveres famous ride, his ghost was scene riding through the deserted streets of Boston, yelling “Your Civil Liberties are gone; Your Civil Liberties are gone”.

Today’s Range 1.0230-80

Michael O’Neill


Toronto Conference

From: Michael O’Neill [mailto:oneillmichaelb@gmail.com]
Sent: Friday, April 19, 2013 8:01 AM
To: ‘Georgina Wellman’
Subject: RE: Toronto Conference

Good Morning Georgina:

Thank you for considering me. I have a pretty broad knowledge of credit and credit risk analysis from the stand point of how a bank looks at credit derived from years of obtaining credit approval for prospects to turn them into customers but I don’t think I would be the best candidate for what you are requesting.

However, if you ever come across the need for an FX consultant, I could probably help



From: Georgina Wellman [mailto:GeorginaWellman]
Sent: Thursday, April 18, 2013 5:55 AM
To: Michael O’Neill
Subject: RE: Toronto Conference

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your email I am catching up with a lot of admin!

I have been approached by a Middle Eastern Oil company who wants some training in Credit Risk Analysis – ideally from an ex banker or from someone with hands on experience in the oil sector/commodities and with a Risk Analytics background.
Would you be this person/be able to recommend who they are after?

The details I have so far are the below:

· Risks including Counterparty Risk: customers & banks.
· Use case studies from oil & gas sector.
· Securities: in the form of Parent Company Guarantees (PCGs) and Letters of Credit (LCs).
· Other methods to pass on or reduce the credit risk eg. credit insurances, payment guarantees etc.
· Documentary LCs vs Standby LCs.
· Credit Risk Strategy.
· Credit Analysis and preparation of effective credit proposals.
· Credit limit determination and monitoring of credit limits.
· Credit ratings
· Expected Default Frequency and Probability of Default.
· Continuous monitoring of counterparties methods, systems, processes.
· Early warning signals of possible default.
· Portfolio management
· Exposure profiling

I think we might have someone able to cover the guarantee/counterparty risk side of things but we would need someone to cover the credit risk analysis side.

Would you feel comfortable or would you be able to recommend someone?



Georgina Wellman Stevenson | Head of Training, Programme & Speaker Management

Follow me on twitter: @ef_georgina

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>>> "Michael O’Neill" <oneillmichaelb> 12/04/2013 13:03 >>>

Hi Georgina:

Thank you for the opportunity to attend and speak at the Toronto EuroFinance conference.

I really enjoyed the experience and the opportunity to network with senior people from a variety of industries.


Mike O’Neill

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