Loonieviews May 15, 2013


May 15, 2013

USD/CAD Open 1.0205-10 Overnight Range 1.0171-1.0210

The Loonie stayed under duress in an uneventful overnight session, undermined by renewed chatter about an economic slowdown in China and soft Eurozone data which generated a bid tone to the US dollar vs. the majors. US data releases today include: April PPI (forecast -0.2, core -0.1) Empire State Manufacturing and April Capacity utilization. Canada releases April Existing Home Sales and March Manufacturing Sales. Asian equity indices were basically flat while European equity indices rose. NY equity index futures are also flat to start the day. Gold is $1,409.60 and WTI Oil is $93.24

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish. The crumbling of resistance at 1.0180 is putting 1.0220 under pressure, a break of which will quickly lead to 1.0240. Above here, suggests a return to 1.0310. The longer term technicals are also bullish USD/CAD showing the currency pair trading in the middle of a rising channel bound by 1.0020 on the bottom and 1.0420 on the top. For today, USD support is at 1.0190 and 1.0160. Resistance is at 1.0220, 1.0240 and 1.0310

The Canadian dollar is under pressure because market sentiment has decided that the recent drop in commodity prices on the perception of a Chinese economic slowdown is bad for the loonie, ignoring evidence of an improving US economy. These forces will ensure that the USD/CAD rate will continue to bounce around within the existing channel.

And in other news, a left wing Toronto city councillor is attempting to thwart the building of two field hockey pitches on the University of Toronto campus by having the grass designated as a “Cultural Heritage Landscape.” During his submission, he was apparently heard to be muttering “Acapulco gold is some bad-ass weed”

Today’s Range 1.0190-1.0240

Michael O’Neill


Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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