Loonieviews June 28, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0485-90 Overnight Range 1.0455-1.0500

The USDCAD had a fairly quiet overnight session but traded with a firm bias ahead of weekend, Reuters Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (forecast 82.8) and Canadian Apr. GDP (forecast 0.1% m/m) Fed speakers including William Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve of NY, have gone to great lengths to assuage markets over the plan to end the stimulus program, going as far as saying “markets got it wrong”, which helped to give USDJPY a boost.

The usual Friday month-end, quarter-end and Half-year end follies may be acerbated today due to the Canada Day holiday on Monday as all those that can will flee from their offices as soon as the 11:00 am fixing and noon rate orders have been dealt with. The gossip suggests that it the fixing flow will be to buy US dollars

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.0470 looking for another test of 1.0550. For today, USD support is at 1.0470, 1.0455 and 1.0430. Resistance is at 1.0510 and 1.0550

And in other news, it’s that time of year again when thousands of teachers flee the stress of their 30 hour work weeks with only a mere 30 days of statutory holidays and Professional Development days since September to ease the crushing burden of their jobs. If only MP’s and MPP’s worked as hard.

Today’s Range 1.0450-1.0550

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

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Loonieviews June 27, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0450-55 Overnight Range 1.0428-1.0475

The USDCAD retreated deep into the 1.0420-40 support zone on the back of reduced hysteria surrounding US stimulus reduction. The collective pause helped drive AUD and EUR higher vs the US dollar while boosting global equities and gold. Asian equity indices were higher, European indices were modestly up (although IBEX was lower) and NY equity index futures are higher. US data releases include, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales and a couple of Fed speakers all of which could help to improve the market tone.

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.0470 but need to slog through the 1.0420-40 support zone to extend US losses to 1.0395. Longer term, the US DCAD uptrend remains intact for a test of 1.0660. For today, USD support is at 1.0425 and 1.0395. Resistance is at 1.0470 and 1.0505

And in other news, a Dutch woman kept her dead mother in a freezer for a week because she was unable to say good-bye. Nothing says “ I love you like a MOMSICLE".

Today’s Range 1.0395-1.0460

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

Loonieviews June 26, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0466-71 Overnight Range 1.065-1.0525

The Canadian dollar drifted modestly from the close in early Asia and then mirrored the rise in AUD/USD, having a peak at the strong support in the 1.0440-60 area. ECB President Draghi’s speech today warned that risks were still there and said that monetary policy would remain accommodative, undermining the EUR/USD. Obama’s greenhouse speech gave both sides of the Keystone Pipeline cause to celebrate. Expectation management by Fed speakers recently have served to calm markets somewhat and officials from the PBOC did the same overnight regarding Chinese liquidity. Global equity indices all rose, including NY equity index futures. Gold is $1,232.40 and WTI oil is $95.24. Today’s US Q1 GDP data is expected to be 2.4% annual.

The short term USD/CAD technicals mixed for the day. A break above 1.0490 sets up a move back to 1.0530. A move through support at 1.0440-60 sets up a test of 1.0390.

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And in other news, former Ontario Premier and accomplished liar testified before a committee investigating the closure of two gas plants and deletion of all emails pertaining to the closure. He explained the deletions away stating that that the record keeping law was “too vague” and that the committee is “Partisan”. Left unsaid was “I may be incompetent, I may be a liar, but MY pension is intact”

Today’s Range 1.0450-1.0530

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

Loonieviews June 24, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0505-10 Overnight Range 1.0480-1.0538

The Canadian dollar got walloped overnight as the combination of bullish USDCAD technicals, thin Asian markets, stop losses and option barriers in the 1.0500 area put US dollar bulls in a feeding frenzy. In addition, the US dollar was in demand vs. the majors on fears of tightening from china which whacked the Shanghai index. There is not much in the way of data today and this week’s big releases, Canada and US GDP will likely be trumped by on-going fears surrounding US interest rates. Global equity indices including NY equity index futures are all down. Gold is $1,281.20 and WTI oil is $93.80

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish following the break of key resistance in the 1.0430-60 area which sets up further USD/CAD gains to 1.0620. For today, USD support is at 1.0505 and 1.0480. Resistance is at 1.0535 and 1.0570

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And in other news, a Peruvian woman found a rather unique way to deal with her husband’s supposed mistress-She threw her off a cliff. The woman survived the 20 foot plunge. There is no word on the fate of her hubby.

Today’s Range 1.0480-1.0560

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

Loonieviews June 21, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0371-76 Overnight Range 1.0359-90

The Canadian dollar enjoyed a quiet overnight session after being thoroughly spanked the past two days. Ben Bernanke must be pulling out his hair, (if he had any to spare) over the global market reactions to what was merely a statement containing a series of “what if’s”. He has to be wondering “where has all the smart money gone?” FX traders have been complaining about poor liquidity exacerbating moves which contributes to the volatility. Canada releases May CPI (forecast +0.9%, Core 1.2%) and April Retail Sales (forecast +0.2%, ex-autos, 0.1%) which shouldn’t have much effect on trading due to FOMC hangover. The USD/CAD could drift lower toward 1.0320 on profit taking ahead of the weekend. The Nikkei closed higher but the Hang Seng and ASX200 were down. European equity indices rose and NY equity index futures are also slightly higher. Gold is $1,293.50 and WTI is $95.51

The short term USD/CAD technicals are bullish following the break of resistance at 1.0280 on Wednesday and while trading above 1.0330. A break above the 1.0390-1.0410 zone should see a serious test of resistance in the 1.0440-60 area. Above here points to 1.0660. For today, USD support is at 1.0330 and 1.0280. Resistance is at 1.0390, 1.0410 and 1.0440.

And in other news, numerous US security agencies will be doing their part to help Bernanke to achieve a 6.5% unemployment rate, as they plan to hire more Federal agents for the US-Mexican border. Unfortunately the government deficit will balloon because nearly every American will be in uniform, packing a gun and providing security to each other so that only a few dozen elderly will be left to run the economy.

Today’s Range 1.0330-1.0410

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

Loonieviews June 19, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0207-12 Overnight Range 1.0201-1.0238

The USD/CAD rate did not stray far from yesterday’s Toronto close ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision and press conference. The new Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz is also holding a press conference following his first ever speech as governor in Oakville today. His remarks should be closely scrutinized for any hints of a shift in policy even though they will be overshadowed by the FOMC.

As expected, ahead of the much ballyhooed FOMC meeting, FX trading overnight was rather subdued with low volumes. Asian equity indices were mixed-the Nikkei and ASX 200 rose around 1% while the Hang Seng dipped about the same. European equity indices were mostly flat and NY equity index futures are flat to slightly negative. Gold is $1,366.60 and WTI oil is $98.60

The short term USD/CAD technicals are neutral as the currency pair bounces erratically within a 1.0150-1.0250 band. Intraday, the USD/CAD is in a modest downtrend while trading below 1.0220 although support at both 1.0200 and 1.0180 is fairly close. The 1.0180-1.0240 trading band will likely remain intact until after the FOMC.

And in other news, the Mayor of Montreal has quit after being charged with Fraud against the government, Breach of Trust, Conspiracy and Municipal Corruption. Apparently, he was merely trying to pad his resume in order to qualify for a Canadian senate appointment.

Today’s Range 1.0180-1.0220

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews

Loonieviews June 18, 2013


LoonieViews

USD/CAD Open 1.0198-03 Overnight Range 1.0176-1.0213

The Canadian dollar retreated from its recent highs but is still trading within the well-defined but narrow 1.0140-1.0240 band in an unsettled overnight market ahead of the two day FOMC meeting that starts today. The AUD/USD slipped following the release of the minutes from the RBA meeting suggesting that Aussie rates could go lower. USD/JPY firmed in a choppy session after trading near strong support. The EUR/USD gained following a positive ZEW report, but all of the above were merely diversions ahead of Mr. Bernanke and the Tale of the Taper. Even today’s US May CPI data (forecast 0.2% m/m, Core 0.2% m/m) and US May Housing Starts (Forecast 950k, Building Permits 976k) will only make a brief splash. Global equity indices were a mixed bag; Asia down, Europe mixed and NY equity index futures are up. Gold is $1,372.00 and WTI is $97.65

The short term USD/CAD technicals are neutral, needing a break either side of 1.0140 or 1.0250 to provide some direction. The USD/CAD appears to have much stronger support at 1.0140 than resistance at 1.0240 and an intraday US dollar uptrend suggests a slight bid bias to the pair. For today, USD support is at 1.0190 and 1.0160. Resistance is at 1.0220 and 1.0250

And in other news, here is the first look at the FOMC’s quantitative easing taper program.

Today’s Range 1.0190-1.0250

Michael O’Neill

647-680-6453

LoonieViews