Loonieviews November 27, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0531-36 Overnight Range 1.0536-59

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD is starting today where it closed on Tuesday after failing in attempts to move outside of the 1.0515-80 trading range. The US dollar fell the most against Sterling supported by as expected GDP data. The EUR rose, rather dubiously, on news of Germany agreeing on a coalition government, while USDJPY firmed in part due to EURJPY demand. US Durable Goods, Jobless claims Chicago PMI and Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer confidence in focus today.

The magnitude of the FX moves in November among the G-7 currencies combined with expected US dollar selling for month end portfolio rebalancing on Friday argue point to a US dollar selling bias until Friday.

The USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.0480 while the intraday technicals are neutral inside a 1.0520-60 band. A move above 1.0560 will lead to 1.0580 and perhaps 1.0610 while a dip below 1.0520 points to 1.0480

Today’s Range 1.0490-1.0560

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Loonieviews November 26, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0538-42 Overnight Range 1.0520-50

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD managed to hang on to most of yesterday’s gains even though AUD and NZD continued to slide vs. the US dollar. Trading is thin ahead of US Thanksgiving and US data today which includes Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence. In addition, the possibility of US dollar selling for month end portfolio rebalancing in a thin market may weigh on the US dollar. Global equity indices are modestly lower as are US equity index futures. Gold is $1,251.50 and WTI oil is $94.45/bbl

The short term USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.0520 however the lack of movement above 1.0580 argues for continued 1.0520-1.0580 consolidation. Intraday, a move below 1.0520 suggest further US dollar weakness to 1.0470. A move above 1.0550 means another test of 1.0580

Today’s Range 1.0500-50

Loonieviews November 25, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0550-55 Overnight Range 1.0520-80

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD rallied in Asia, fueled in part by news of the US led nuclear deal with Iran. In return for Iran to adjusting their nuclear program for "peaceful" purposes, some UN sanctions , including oil exports, would be lifted. In Iran, the new plan is to rebuild the Treasury and then blow-up the middle east while , downgrading references to the USA from the "Great Satan" to the "Laudable Lucifer". The lively Asian session faded to dull in the European morning although another ECB official’s interest rate comments sparked a round of EURUSD selling. Global equities indices are all higher including US equity index futures. Gold is down to $1,230.80 and WTI is $93.52

The short term USDCAD technicals are bullish but appear to be consolidating recent gains within a 1.0520-1.0580 range. Intraday, the US dollar is mildly bearish while trading below 1.0570 looking for a break below 1.0540 to extend the drop to the 1.0510-20 zone. A break of 1.0580 should lead to a reprint of the 2013 high at 1.0606.

Today’s Range 1.0520-80

Loonieviews November 22, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0559-63 Overnight Range 1.0517-63

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD ended yesterday with a bid tone which continued throughout the overnight session. Verbal intervention by the RBA and RBNZ fueled selling pressure in AUD and kiwi while the Canadian dollar appears to be collateral damage. The BoC may have dropped a tightening bias from their last interest rate statement, but they are not even close to considering cutting Canadian interest rates. Regardless, the prospect of higher UK rates and the ECB denial of negative rates drove EUR and GBP higher this week and consequently selling of Canadian dollars against those currencies..

The USDCAD rally may pause today on the back of better than expected Canadian Retail Sales data (forecast to rise 0.3%). In addition, today’s JOLTS survey, reportedly a Janet Yellen favourite, could push tapering start sentiment back on soft data. The USDCAD could see some end of the week position squaring but US dollar dips will be shallow.

The short term USDCAD technicals are bullish with the break of 1.0515 confirming a short term bottom in place at 1.0440. The break of last week’s high at 1.0525 and the triple top in the 1.0550-60 area argue for further gains to 1.0660. For today, USD support is seen at 1.0540, 1.0520 and 1.0490. Resistance is at 1.0580 and 1.0610 (2013 high)

Today’s Range 1.0510-90

Loonieviews November 21, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0457-62 Overnight Range 1.0448-72

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD overnight range was nearly identical to yesterday’s band with loonie traders sidelined while traders in AUDUSD, USDJPY EURUSD and GBPUSD had all the fun. A lower than expected HSBC China PMI index (Actual 50.4 vs. forecast 50.8) started the selling while the RBA governor’s speech alluding to FX intervention didn’t help matters. USDJPY powered through stops at 100.25 on fall-out from the FOMC minutes. The camp that thought the minutes were hawkish must be in the driver’s seat. The euro zone PMI’s came out on the soft side. EURUSD is quickly recouping yesterday’s negative interest rate headline move on the back of Draghi comments suggesting that markets shouldn’t read too much into them. US data releases include: Jobless Claims, PPI and Markit PMI. Global equity indices are mixed. The Nikkei is up but the Hang Seng and S&P ASX 200 are down. European indices are all lower except for the FTSE100 while US equity index futures are slightly higher. WTI is $93.80/bbl and Gold is $1,247.50

The short term USDCAD technicals are slightly bearish after failing to extend gains above 1.0480 suggesting a retest of minor support at 1.0435 on the day. A move through 1.0435 points to 1.0410 while a break above 1.0480 suggests 1.0510

Today’s Range 1.0430-80

Loonieviews November 20, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0448-53 Overnight Range 1.0450-1.0472

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD closed with a bit of a bid and then made a half-hearted attempt to take out resistance at 1.0480 in Asia which failed. It spent the European session drifting lower and is back at the close.. The US dollar was a mixed bag of chop overnight. slightly higher vs. EUR and lower against GBP AUD and JPY. The Bank of England minutes were largely as expected. US data includes Retail Sales, CPI and the FOMC minutes. I think that any dollar movement following the data will be short lived ahead of the FOMC minutes

The short term USDCAD technicals are neutral with the USDCAD content to chop around within a 1.0420-80 band. There is a lot of support between 1.0375-1.0410 and the existing US dollar uptrend from September 2012 remains intact. For today, USD support is at 1.0440, 1.0420 and 1.0405. Resistance is at 1.0480, 1.0500 and 1.0515

Today’s Range 1.0425-70

Loonieviews November 19, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0441-46 Overnight Range 1.0418-46

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD was collateral damage in an eventful overnight session sparked by announcements from China and mixed German ZEW data. Although it was eventful, the only real mover was AUDUSD which rallied on expected increased Chinese demand ..There isn’t any data of note from the US or Canada so today’s buffet of Fed speakers , including Bernanke tonight, will keep traders sidelined.

The short term USDCAD technicals are bullish while trading above 1.0425, supported by the break of 1.0440 which implies more 1.0410-1.0510 range trading. for today, USD support is at 1.0425 and 1.0410 Resistance is at 1.0450 and 1.0470.

Today’s Range 1.0420-50