Loonieviews January 30, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.1117-22 Overnight Range 1.1086-1.1124

The USDCAD flirted with 1.1200 in Asian but backed off even though there is widespread US dollar demand due to the EM quasi-panic. Weak Chinese data and another $10 billion in tapering by the FOMC and internal domestic issues has led to selling pressure across the EM space. This shift into risk aversion has added to the loonies negative bias. US data releases include GDP (forecast 3.2% annualized), PCE, jobless claims and Pending Home Sales

The short term USDCAD technical are bullish while trading above 1.1140 which is guarding the uptrend line at 1.1120. A break above the overnight high of 1.1195 should extend gains to 1.1225. For today, USD support is at 1.1160, 1.1140 and 1.1120. Resistance is at 1.1195, 1.1210 and 1.1225

Today’s Range 1.1140-1.1220

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Loonieviews January 29, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.1142-46 Overnight Range 1.1134-1.1185

The USDCAD was fairly choppy in a lively overnight session with traders "talking Turkey" ahead of today’s FOMC rate decision and statement. Yesterday’ late day announcement by the Turkish Central Bank that it was hiking the overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and its overnight borrowing rate to 8% from 3.5% was well received in Asia. The news abruptly halted the rout in USDTRY, eased the risk aversion panic across the EM spectrum and boosted Asian equity indices. The Nikkei close up 2.7%. Europe was rather less enamoured. USDTRY pare its Asian gains and European equity indices were mixed. There isn’t any US data of note leaving the traders to cool their heels until the 2:00 pm EST FOMC announcement.

The short term USDCAD technical are bullish while trading above 1.1130 looking for further gains to 1.1225. A decisive break above the 1.1225-40 area will target 1.1640. A move below 1.1130 points to a dip back to 1.1080. for today, USD support is at 1.1130 and 1.1080. Resistance is at 1.1170 and 1.1210.

Today’s Range 1.1130-1.1210

Loonieviews January 28, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.1117-22 Overnight Range 1.1086-1.1124

The USDCAD continues to probe topside resistance in the 1.1120-30 zone as the typhoon surrounding China’s so called "shadow banking" default risk proves to be a mere tempest in a teapot. A strong US Durable Goods report this morning will help to keep the US dollar bid ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Asian equity indices closed slightly lower but European indices and NY equity index futures are higher. Gold is $1,254.10 and WTI oil is $96.17/bbl.

The short term USDCAD technical are bullish while trading above 1.1080 with a decisive break above resistance at 1.1130 pointing to a retest of 1.1170. A move below 1.1080 suggests an dip to 1.1030. For today, USD support is at 1.1110 and 1.1080. Resistance is 1.1140 and 1.1170

Today’s Range 1.1100-50

Loonieviews January 24, 2013


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.1070-75 Overnight Range 1.1056-1.1135

The USDCAD retreated under the onslaught of what is being described as stampede into safe haven trades, particularly against JPY and CHF. USDJPY has plunged from 103.58 to 102.18 but keep in mind, buying USDJPY was considered the :no-brainer" trade since the beginning of November. There is a real risk that this move is confusing a long overdue correction for risk aversion with "facts’ spouted to fit the move. AUDUSD got hammered after the WSJ reported comments by a RBA board member saying" 0.8000 was a fair rate". Canadian CPI will be important data for loonie traders. The forecast is for a rise to 1.3%, y/y but judging from the concerns expressed in the BoC statement, I suspect it may be below forecast. Global equity indices are all down including NY equity index futures. Gold is $1,260.10 and WTI oil is $96.77/bbl

The short term USDCAD technical are bearish while trading below1.1120 with a move below 1.1050 opening up a move to 1.1020 and then 1.0990. Above 1.1120 argues for another run at 1.1175 and then 1.1225. Below 1.0990 could lead to a deeper correction to 1.0950

Today’s Range 1.1065-1.1165

Loonieviews-January 23, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.1142-46 Overnight Range 1.1084-1.1171

The USDCAD rally continued unabated in a lively and active overnight session. A lower than expected HSBC China PMI (actual 49.6 vs. forecast 50.6) led to a wholesale dumping of commodity currencies. This data was another dagger in the heart of the loonie, already reeling from an "extra-dovish" Central Bank that is complaining about a strong currency. The beleaguered Canadian dollar may get a minor reprieve this morning if Retail Sales (Forecast 0.2% m/m, ex autos 0.3 %). Meanwhile, better than expected Eurozone PMI’s gave EURUSD a lift. Asian equity indices closed down. European equity indices are mixed, to flat and NY equity index futures are down. Gold is $1,244.60 and WTI oil is $94.70/bbl

The USDCAD technicals are bullish. The break of resistance at 1.1020-30 followed by 1.1120 puts 1.1230-50 in sight, a level representing 50% Fibo retracement of 2009-211 move. You need to go back to the 2009 charts to discover that there is not a lot of resistance between 1.1225 and 1.1550. For today, USD support is at 1.1120 and 1.1070. Resistance is 1.1170 and 1.1220

Today’s Range 1.1120-1.1220

Loonieviews January 20, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0946-50 Overnight Range 1.0932-67

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD started soft in Asian, caught up in the minor euphoria following the release of Chinese GDP, IP and Retail Sales which led to gains in AUDUSD and NZDUSD as well. The gains were short lived as the data was mostly as expected. Thin markets likely exacerbated the moves as well. The European session proved to be uninspiring and the lack of US data this week coupled with the US Martin Luther King holiday today argues for more of the same during the North American session. Asian equity indices closed down while European equity indices were mixed to flat. Gold is $1,254.70 and WTI oil is $93.72

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.0955-60 supported by the break below the short term rising trend line from January 6 at 1.0940-50. However, the downside is limited by support at 1.0920 and 1.0900. A move below 1.0900 suggests a test of 1.0840. A move back above 1.0960 will see another test of 1.0990.

Today’s Range 1.0920-60

Loonieviews January 14, 2014


LOONIEVIEWS

USDCAD Open 1.0941-46 Overnight Range 1.0929-49

Original post on Saxo Bank’s Trading Floor

The USDCAD traded quietly overnight, drifting higher in a lackluster session to wind down the week. The star of the show was GBPUSD which jumped around 0.0100 points are stronger than expected December Retail sales data (Actual 5.3% vs. forecast of 2.6%) The rest of the majors traded sideways even as AUDUSD stayed in close proximity to yesterday’s low. US data on tap includes Building permits, housing starts Industrial Production/Cap. Utilization and Reuters/Mich. Consumer confidence..

The short term USDCAD technicals are bullish even as the currency pair consolidates recent gains within a 1.0910-1.0990 band. For today, USD support is at 1.0920 and 1.0905. Resistance is at 1.0950 and 1.0980.

Today’s Range 1.0920-80