Loonieviews-January 23, 2014


USDCAD Open 1.1142-46 Overnight Range 1.1084-1.1171

The USDCAD rally continued unabated in a lively and active overnight session. A lower than expected HSBC China PMI (actual 49.6 vs. forecast 50.6) led to a wholesale dumping of commodity currencies. This data was another dagger in the heart of the loonie, already reeling from an "extra-dovish" Central Bank that is complaining about a strong currency. The beleaguered Canadian dollar may get a minor reprieve this morning if Retail Sales (Forecast 0.2% m/m, ex autos 0.3 %). Meanwhile, better than expected Eurozone PMI’s gave EURUSD a lift. Asian equity indices closed down. European equity indices are mixed, to flat and NY equity index futures are down. Gold is $1,244.60 and WTI oil is $94.70/bbl

The USDCAD technicals are bullish. The break of resistance at 1.1020-30 followed by 1.1120 puts 1.1230-50 in sight, a level representing 50% Fibo retracement of 2009-211 move. You need to go back to the 2009 charts to discover that there is not a lot of resistance between 1.1225 and 1.1550. For today, USD support is at 1.1120 and 1.1070. Resistance is 1.1170 and 1.1220

Today’s Range 1.1120-1.1220

Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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