Loonieviews March 20, 2014


Overnight Range 1.1238-1.1260

The USDCAD remained elevated overnight, unwilling to extend yesterday’s gains above resistance at 1.1260 and unable to recoup any of yesterday’s losses. In a fair imitation of the Steve Jobs "Reality Distortion Field" FX traders heard the BoC governor Poloz warning of rate cuts while also hearing Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen warning of rate hikes in six months. The overnight FX markets demonstrated a degree of calm as Europeans attempt to reconcile the US FX moves with the actual FOMC message. Look for the next series of Fed speakers to "clarify" the message. Today’s US data releases will be largely ignored as FX traders continue to digest yesterdays news.

The short term USDCAD technical are bullish. The break of key resistance levels at 1.1190, the 2014 high of 1.1224 and a multi-year high at 1.1240 point to further gains to 1.1550. There is not much the way of resistance between 1.1260 and 1.1550. However, 1.1260 is proving sticky. A move below 1.1230 points to further losses to 1.1180. For today, USD support is at 1.1240, 1.1210 and 1.1180. Resistance is at 1.1260,1.1290 and 1.1320

Today’s Range 1.1210-1.1280

Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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