Loonieviews 15Aug16

US dollar on the defensive

USDCAD Open (6:00 am) 1.2934-41 Overnight Range 1.2917-1.2973 15Aug.16


NOTE: This chart represents gain (or loss) of G10 currencies vs. the US dollar from NY close (4::00pm) to NY Open Aug 11, 6:00 am EDT

USDCAD has begun the North America session with a bit of negative pressure stemming from firm oil prices and diminished rate US rate hike expectations due to Friday’s soft Retail Sales data. That’s not how it started In Asia. Traders there initially bought US dollars in part because USDJPY was climbing. That move ran into offers at 101.50 and USDJPY slid down to 100.85

It was fairly quiet in Europe because of Assumption Day holidays. EURUSD drifted higher while GBPUSD traded sideways within a 1.2900-50 range

The only data of note is NAHB Housing Market Index in the US, which shouldn’t have much of an impact. The Canadian dollar is tracking WTI prices almost tick for tick. WTI oil is off of its overnight high of $45.13 and is sitting at $44.80

Looking ahead, the Wednesday afternoon release of the FOMC minutes and Thursday’s Eurozone inflation data are the key events for traders this week. The major Canadian data, CPI and Retail Sales isn’t due until Friday.

USDCAD technical outlook.

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish while trading below 1.2960 and targeting the uptrend line from May that comes into play at 1.2860. Guarding that line is double bottom support at 1.2910. A move above 1.2960 will lead to a retest of resistance in the 1.2990-1.3010 area. For Today, USDCAD support is at 1.2910, 1.2880 and 1.2860. Resistance is at 1.2960 and 1.2990.

Today’s Range 1.2890-1.2940

Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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