Loonieviews 28Sep16

Dollar firms within tight ranges

USDCAD Open (6:00 am) 1.3223-27 Overnight Range 1.3197-1.3233 28Sept 16


NOTE: This chart represents gain (or loss) of G10 currencies vs the US dollar from NY close (4:00 pm) to Sept. 26, 6:00 am EDT

USDCAD traded sideways within a narrow range overnight torn between general US dollar sentiment and fluctuating oil prices. The technical bias is bullish after breaking key top-side resistance levels. There isn’t any domestic economic data until Friday’s GDP report

The US dollar managed to squeeze out tiny gains across the G10 in overnight trading. Kiwi was the biggest loser, falling from 0.7303 to 0.7240. There wasn’t an obvious catalyst for the move. Its antipodean colleague is just about flat. USDJPY climbed steadily, in part due to a reduction in safe haven demand and in part due to position adjustments ahead of Japan’s ½ year end.

In Europe, amid-session dip in EURUSD was reversed and the single currency is back above 1.1200. GBPUSD popped above 1.3000 following Mark Carney’s comments alluding to some positive long term prospects for the UK economy.

Oil prices have been choppy as the “Deal or No Deal” gameshow plays out in Algiers. WTI got and end-of-day boost, yesterday, when the API Crude stocks report showed another drawdown. Overnight price action has seen WTI drift higher. There is still hope that Opec will announce plans to reach an accord by the end of the year. WTI has traded in a $44.48-$45.36 range.

The US dollar may get spanked this morning if Durable Goods Order data for august is weaker than the -1.4% that is forecast. And then later on, Janet Yellen is speaking to the Committee on Financial Services about Supervision and Regulation. That speech may be a non-factor for FX traders.

USDCAD technical outlook.

The intraday usdcad technicals are bearish while trading below 1.3240 looking for a break of support at 1.3190 to extend losses to additional support at 1.3160. The short term technical picture is bullish while prices are above the 1.3060-80 zone. In addition, the break of previous resistance at 1.3250 shattered a major resistance level and now targets 1.3310. If broken, next stop is 1.3410.

For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3190 and 1.3160. Resistance is at 1.3240 and 1.3280

Today’s Range 1.3190-1.3280

Categories FX, Foreign Exchange, Currency, Canadian Dollar

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