2016 – Four quarters equal a strong dollar 30Dec16


2016 – Four quarters equal a strong dollar

Michael O’Neill

FX Consultant / IFXA Ltd

Canada

· Q1 2016 volatility was a trader’s dream

· Fed rate hike theme, Brexit and oil dominated 2016

· Running with the herd can be an expensive trading strategy

This might look like fun. But it’s dangerous. Pic: iStock

By Michael O’Neill

The first quarter of 2016 was ushered in with a dazzling pyrotechnic display in cities around the world. However, it was the Chinese fireworks show that stupefied world financial markets.

A major melt-down in Chinese equity markets unleashed a torrent of fear and loathing in Las Vegas and across global markets on January 4, 2016. The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index dropped 7% before circuit -breakers tripped and ended trading for the day. Weaker than expected Chinese data was one of the main catalysts for the move. The Peoples Bank of China fixed CNY at 6.5032, the highest level since 2011. That was a big deal then but as USDCNY flirts with 7.00, it looks like a bargain.

The damage wasn’t contained to China. The Japanese yen was bought as a safe haven and the risk-off theme spread into Europe. European equity indices tanked as did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The US dollar roared higher with only the yen and Swiss franc posting a gain. And all that was on day one.

It got worse. China’s equity market circuit breakers triggered again and were abandoned. Oil prices plummeted with WTI hitting $26.78. CNN reported that the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its worst 10-day start to the year since 1887. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 32.19. There were no shortage of doom and gloom predictions.

Chart: Dow Jones Industrial Average January 2016

Source: CNN Money

But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum and the end of the world. It didn’t happen. By the end of January, another 6.4% plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index was shrugged off by equity traders elsewhere. The major indices clawed back losses, although with a lack of conviction which proved prescient in early February. Oil prices also rallied, gaining 30% from the low on rumours that Opec would make production cuts, a rumour that proved true 11 months later. The Bank of Japan cut rates into negative territory and the Federal Open Market committee delivered a somewhat dovish statement. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged but bank chief Mario Draghi opened the door to additional policy action in March.

February ushered in the Year of the Monkey and another unchanged rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia. A fresh batch of oil production cut rumours lifted oil from a low of $26.06 and kicked off a 3½ month rally. That rally helped USDCAD retrace 0.1100 points from its January peak. February was also the month when “Brexit” chatter became a daily event for sterling. GBPUSD got smacked when news that the EU and the UK agreed to a new deal which set the stage for a June 23 referendum in Britain. China sacked the head of the securities regulating agency in an attempt to put the earlier equity market woes behind them.

A series of mixed US economic data releases raised questions about the prospect of the Fed’s March rate increase which had been forecast by the December dot-plot data. The G20 meeting in Shanghai ended the month. The PBoC governor told a press conference that there was no reason for CNY to fall persistently. The USDCNY fix on February 26 was 6.5436

The Fed rate hike in March never materialised and the somewhat dovish statement gave US equities a new lease on life. Donald Trump, a mere Republican presidential nomination candidate, called China a currency manipulator. It was no big deal then but come January 20, 2017, things could change.

The second quarter of 2016 did not start with financial market fireworks. Instead, it ended that way.

Oil prices tracked higher until mid-June on anticipation of Opec production cuts. A dovish Fed and becalmed China equity markets helped US equities recover from the Q1 debacle. They got an added boost from an upgraded GDP outlook in May. Eurozone equity indices didn’t fare as well. The diverging US/Eurozone interest rate paths and economic outlooks drove EURUSD from a peak of 1.1605 to 1.1110 in by the beginning of June. That also fuelled expectations that the FOMC would raise rates at their June meeting. They didn’t. The looming UK referendum on EU membership spooked them. They were concerned about market volatility in the event that the “leave” side prevailed. They nailed that one.

Britain’s decision to exit the EU reverberated across asset classes and set the tone for the summer. GBPUSD was at 1.500 as the results were being tabulated and finished the quarter at 1.3270. EURUSD dropped to 1.0933 from 1.1425 but closed out the month at 1.1165.

Chart GBPUSD around Referendum

Source: Saxo Bank

The third quarter offered a respite from the turmoil and volatility in the first six months. EURUSD was range-bound with a 1.0940-1.1360 band. Britain got a new prime minister, Theresa May, who took over from David Cameron. She is tasked with cleaning up his mess. GBPUSD bounced within a 1.2780-1.3470 range although short positions stayed at extreme levels and Brexit issues dominate trading. The Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged signalled, to many, that it was “lower rates for longer”. US equities continued their march higher. Eurozone equity indices also eked out gains and Japan’s Nikkei rose 7.1%. Even UK stocks climbed, helped by easing measures from the Bank of England.

Fed chair Yellen was guilty of stoking rate hike hopes when she told attendees at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, that the case for a rate hike had “strengthened”. Those hopes were dashed in September when rates were left unchanged.

Quarter four was all about the US election, Opec and the expected Fed rate hike in December.

USDJPY climbed relentlessly and EURUSD dropped steadily. Sterling cratered on October 6. A “panicked”Citibank trader in Tokyo was taggedfor exacerbating a drop in GBPUSD from 1.2860 to 1.1500 in about 40 seconds. When the dust settled and traders realised that Mars was not attacking, sterling bounced. However, it was not until the middle of December before GBPUSD recovered all the Tokyo losses.

Readers of the New York Times or Washington Post were smug in their knowledge that Hillary Clinton would become the first woman and 45th president of the United States. The problem was that a lot of American’s didn’t read those papers. Donald Trump won. US equity markets and the US dollar have rallied ever since.

Oil prices were on a roller coaster until the last day in November. Traders were sceptical of Saudi Arabia’s ability to garner enough support to achieve meaningful production cuts. Oil prices had declined from $49.15 on November 22 to $44.80 the day before a deal was to be announced. The Saudis prevailed. Oil soared and WTI hit $54.34 after Christmas.

Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank muddied the waters when they announced that they would reduce the amount of bonds purchased each month. Then they added another nine months to the quantitative easing program. Traders whipped out their calculators, quickly determined that the extension amounted to an increase in quantitative easing and sold EURUSD.

The final FOMC meeting of the year was almost anticlimactic. Almost. By the time Janet Yellen and company announced a 0.25 basis point increase in the overnight Fed funds range, it was 97% priced into the market. The excitement arose from three rate increases projected in the dot-plot forecasts for 2017. The September dot-plot forecast only had two. Once again, the US dollar was off to the races.

The US dollar is closing out the year on a mixed note. Sterling is the biggest loser followed by the euro, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. The Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar squeezed out gains.

If we learned anything from 2016 it is that if you always run with the herd, you risk getting trampled. Conventional wisdom isn’t wisdom, just conjecture dressed up as conviction.

— Edited by Clare MacCarthy

Michael O’Neillis an FX consultant at IFXA Ltd.

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Annual Christmas Poem 19Dec16


‘Twas the Week Before Christmas

By Michael O’Neill (apologies to Clement C Moore)

‘Twas just a week before Christmas, when all ‘round the world

The “year is finally over’ banners were unfurled.

The forecasters were hung from the chimney without grump

For the sin of being wrong on Brexit and Trump

The democrats and Hillary were snug in their beds

While visions of failure danced in their heads

Mrs. Clinton in her kerchief did not want the rap

For losing to Trump and all of his crap

Then out on her desk there rose such a clatter

Hillary sprang from her bed to see what was the matter

Away to the PC she flew like a flash

Was someone depositing another pile of cash?

The numbers on the spreadsheet of the Clinton Foundation

Gave a luster of mid-day to an expensive vacation.

But then what to her wondering eyes did appear

But an image of Dobby the Elf with a sneer

With a smug look on his face as the picture booted-in

She knew in a moment is was Vladimir Putin

More rapid than eagles his hackers they came

Now, Demyan, now Dima, now Petya, and Balendame

On Cadmael! On Casmir!. On Dolphus and Blazoo

Hack Facebook, hack Twitter and hack the Democrat site too

And then in a twinkling she knew she had proof

She had to tell it to the world, she would cry from the roof.

As she lifted her head and was turning around

The PC starting chirping, making a really odd sound

Then she saw Putin dressed in fur to his boot

Millions of papers spilling out of his suit

And the taste of bile rose surged to her palate

The papers were marked Hillary, each paper a ballot

She knew she’d been robbed and she knew not to linger

But Putin just smiled and gave her the finger

Then he put on a hat and she got a blinding migraine

For the words on the front said “make America great Again.

The PC screen turned blue the evidence vanished from sight

And from the speakers she heard, Merry Christmas and Good night,

Countdown to FOMC


10dec16

It wasn’t quite a snooze fest in overnight markets but it was close.  The US dollar opened in New York with tiny losses against the G10 currencies, inside of narrow trading bands.

China credit data was a tad firmer than expected but it didn’t have any impact.

Australia new motor vehicle sales were soft which undermined AUDUSD in Asia.  The losses were recovered

In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Survey showed an improvement in Manufacturing Sentiment for the first time in six quarters.  Local economists suggest the data points to a gradually improving economy. USDJPY dipped briefly on the news but quickly bounced back.  The recovery was short lived and USDJPY was near the overnight low (114.89) in early New York trading.

EURUSD traded randomly within a .0055-point range (1.0610-65) while ignoring Euro-area data.

Sterling traded sideways in Asia and attempted a rally in the European session following a better than expected UKK employment report. It didn’t last.  GBPUSD declined and opened in New York at the bottom of the narrow overnight range.

Oil prices never really recovered from Tuesday’s end of day API Crude stocks change report.  API reported a 4.7-million-barrel build in US crude inventories.  WTI dropped to $52.36 from $52.86. and then spent the overnight session drifting within a $52.06-$52.50 range.

The Canadian dollar has been resilient. USDCAD traders have ignored the intraday oil price gyrations and appear to be focused on a test of major support in the 1.3070-90 area

There is a lot of US data on tap this morning including Retail Sales, Producer Price Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, in addition to the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks report.  If the reports are close to the forecasts, the impact on FX markets should be minimal. After that, the day will be a write-off until the FOMC statement and press conference, starting at 2:00 pm EDT.

                                                            FX Market Snapshot

14dec-rates-lv

                           Change in currency from close (4:00 pm EDT)  to  6:00 am EDT

 

                                                     USDCAD Technical outlook:

The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish and in a steep downtrend channel that began at the end of November, coinciding with the Opec announcement and the rally in WTI. The top of the channel is in the 1.3150-60 area while the bottom is in the 1.3000-10 zone. However, significant resistance looms in the 1.3070-90 area, stemming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend line support from May.  For today, USDCAD support is at 1.3090 and 1.3060.  Resistance is at 1.3130 and 1.3160

Today’s Range 1.3060-1.3160

14dec16-usdcad-30-min-lv

EURUSD technicals

EURUSD has traded randomly inside a broad 1.0500-1.0860 range within the context of a medium-term downtrend from May which is intact while prices are below 1.1190.  For today, a move above 1.0670 will target a retest of resistance in the 1.0800 area.  A move below 1.0600 will lead back to 1.0500

Chart: EURUSD 4 hour

14Dec16 eurusd 4 hr LV.png

USDJPY technicals

The USDJPY technicals are bullish but consolidating recent gains within a 114.70-115.50 range.  A break above 115.50 would lead to a retest of 116.12 and then 117.72, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2016 range.  A move below 114.70 suggests further downside to 114.00.

Chart: USDJPY 30 minute

14dec16-usdjpy-30-min-lv

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you feel lucky? 9Dec16


‘Do you feel lucky?’

Michael O’Neill

FX Consultant / IFXA Ltd

Canada

·

· Oil traders push WTI to week’s high ahead of meeting

· USDCAD approaching the ‘buy’ zone

· USDX technicals suggest a top is near

Just why is 1971 rogue detective flick ‘Dirty Harry’ so full of quotes

that seem relevant to the US dollar? Is it just us? Photo: iStock

By Michael O’Neill

In the 1971 movie Dirty Harry, the titular Inspector Harry Callahan asks a wounded thug reaching for his weapon, "do you feel lucky? well do you, punk?"

That is the same question that the US dollar index is asking US dollar bulls.

The USDX ripped higher following the election, rising from 95.88 to 102.13 on November 24. It then began a choppy downtrend which stalled inside a 99.88-100.68 range until the December 8 European Central Bank meeting.

The extension of the quantitative easing programme until the end of 2017 launched USDX to 101.48 within 24 hours.

The monthly USDX technicals are bullish while trading above 95.90 but need to break major resistance in the 101.60-80 zone representing the 61.8% retracement of the 2002-206 range. The long-term setup is bullish will a decisive break above 101.80 extending gains to 109.05.

However, the Janet Yellen-led Federal reserve is cautious. We know that because Yellen never fails to tell us so. Donald Trump’s election probably caught the entire Federal Open Market Committee off-guard, as well as half the nation. His infrastructure spending and tax cut promises provide the Fed with the perfect excuse to deliver a non-committal, "steady as she goes"-type statement.

If so, traders feeling lucky may come to regret their decisions.

Monthly USDX:

Source: Saxo Bank

The USDCAD outlook

USDCAD has been declining steadily since Opec announced an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels/day. That move triggered stop-loss selling as key support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3190 gave way.

The December 9 break below the 1.3192 level representing the 100-day moving average exposes the 200-day moving average (1.3073) to a test.

A dovish FOMC meeting combined with a positive response to this weekend’s oil meetings could be the catalyst for additional USDCAD weakness.

However, the sustainability of such a move is questionable. The list of Canadian dollar negatives is long and includes: widening CAD/US interest rate differentials, Donald Trump and his trade war risks, and a dovish Bank of Canada.

I believe that if USDCAD breaks below the 1.3140 area, it enters the “buy” zone.

Daily USDCAD:

Create your own charts with SaxoTraderGO click hereto learn more

Source: Saxo Bank

The week ahead

This week will likely mark the end of “normal” FX markets for the 2016 calendar year and it could be explosive. It has all the ingredients to be so, anyway.

There are major data releases from around the world including US Retail Sales, Eurozone inflation, and Australian employment. Then there are central bank policy meetings: the Bank of England and the FOMC.

It looks like it is a very volatile cocktail of risks but recent events have more than likely diluted their impact.

‘Tis the season to be jolly and all of that. The December 8 ECB decision suggests that any impact from next week’s Eurozone data will be minimal. It is simply too soon after the policy announcements.

The FOMC policy statement and press conference will be anticlimactic. A bevy of Committee members have all but confirmed that a 25 basis point rate increase will happen. They are unlikely to stir the pot much further ahead of all the uncertainties that Donald Trump’s presidency brings.

If so, the effects from this meeting will fade faster than the Italian referendum’s impact on EURUSD.

Remember Italy, EURUSD traders? Pizza? Pasta? Populist victories? Photo: iStock

The week that was

What a week. FX markets seemed alternately euphoric and despondent, lethargic and energetic, and often all of the above.

Monday started with Asia traders dealing with the results of what was billed as a near-seismic event; the Italian referendum. A ‘No’ vote would herald the end of the euro. Well, the ‘No’ vote won the day, and with a wide margin.

Traders crushed EURUSD and EUR crosses.

Then, traders came to their senses. “Wait a minute! It’s Italy. This is the same country that has had 64 governments since becoming a Republic in 1946. All the ‘No’ vote means is Italy has another domestic issue, at least for the foreseeable future.

The EURUSD sellers became EURUSD buyers and the Italian referendum was forgotten by the close in New York.

USDJPY was unperturbed by the referendum noise and climbed steadily. Eurozone economic data was ignored. A trio of Fed speakers appeared to be supporting a Fed rate hike on December 14, but their words had no impact on trading.

Tuesday, FX markets were rather lethargic. The Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting statement didn’t provide anything out of the ordinary and whined about the level of the currency. AUDUSD drifted lower and kiwi fell in step. Opec reported record crude oil production in November. Better-than-expected US trade data were ignored and Wall Street posted record highs. Sterling tumbled from a two-month peak on renewed Brexit issues.

Source: Saxo Bank

On Wednesday, Aussie traders sold AUDUSD on soft Q3 GDP data but half the move was reversed by the time New York opened. Sterling extended Tuesday’s losses on we economic reports. The US dollar was on the defensive during a quiet New York session. The Bank of Canada policy statement was as expected and a non-event for USDCAD traders.

Thursday, the US dollar was on the defensive in Asia and during the European morning. A decent China Trade report only had a minimal impact due to the pending ECB policy statement and press conference. ECB president Draghi lit the fuse to a wild New York session. He announced an extension of the QE programme and tapering.

To be fair, he denies that reducing the amount of assets purchased each month is tapering. He calls it pragmatic risk management to deal with uncertainties. No matter, Traders saw “extension” and EURUSD tanked, falling a post statement, knee-jerk reaction high of 1.0877 to 1.0600 area at the end of the day. The US dollar closed the day in New York with gains across the G10 spectrum, except against the Loonie.

Friday, USDJPY powered to 115.26, a level last seen in February. The Canadian dollar moved higher underpinned by on firm oil prices and expectations for additional oil production cuts by non-Opec members. EURUSD traded heavily, suffering from the aftereffects of the ECB QE extension.

Back onto easing street. Photo: iStock

— Edited by Michael McKenna

Trade of the Day 9Dec16


UPDATE: The original Idea(below) did not get any traction.. Resistance in the 0.7200 may stall the rally ahead of potential NZDUSD selling on the approach to the FOMC meeting

Close the Trade at the market (Currently 0.7165) for a tiny gain of 0.0015

Kiwi has some upside.

Background: NZDUSD has made an impressive recovery from its post-Trump victory free-fall. NZDUSD dropped from 0.7402 to 0.6970. between November 8 and November 24. It has since recouped over 50% of those losses and is likely to recoup the rest of them in the coming days.

The recent GlobalDairyTrade auction results were encouraging. The 3.5% price increase was the fourth consecutive rise and more importantly, reportedly in the breakeven range for farmers.

The RBNZ signaled that it had finished easing at its November meeting. RBNZ Governor, Graeme Wheeler seemed cautiously positive in a speech on December 8. The intraday and short term NZDUSD technicals are bullish while prices are above 0.7120. looking for a break of 0.7225 to extend gains to 0.7240 and then 0.7300

The combination of a positive domestic economic outlook, high interest rates and bullish technicals suggests further NZDUSD gains to the pre-election peak.

TRADE IDEA RISKS

A major risk to this trade idea is if next week’s FOMC statement is more hawkish than expected. The ensuing US dollar rally would undermine NZDUSD and trigger the stop. Another risk is that this trade idea is late to the party. NZDUSD has already risen 50% from its recent low. It may be due for a correction which, if it over extends, will trigger the stop.

TRADE IDEA PARAMETERS

BUY NZDUSD: ½ normal position size at market (currently 0.7150) Balance at 0.7120

STOP LOSS: 0.7090, just below the 100-day moving average

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7240

TIME HORIZON 3 days

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The intraday NZDUSD technicals are bullish while trading above 0.7120, looking for a break of the recent top at 0.7220 to extend gains to the pre-election peak of 0.7400.

Source: Saxo Bank

NZDUSD daily with 100 day moving average noted

Source: Saxo Bank

I IMPORTANT NOTICE and DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by ONeillFX for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which ONeillFX, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither ONeillFX nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the way you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax, and other professional advisors. All ONeillFX products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of ONeillFX.

Trade of the Day 8Dec16


Kiwi has some upside.

Background: NZDUSD has made an impressive recovery from its post-Trump victory free-fall. NZDUSD dropped from 0.7402 to 0.6970. between November 8 and November 24. It has since recouped over 50% of those losses and is likely to recoup the rest of them in the coming days.

The recent GlobalDairyTrade auction results were encouraging. The 3.5% price increase was the fourth consecutive rise and more importantly, reportedly in the breakeven range for farmers.

The RBNZ signaled that it had finished easing at its November meeting. RBNZ Governor, Graeme Wheeler seemed cautiously positive in a speech on December 8. The intraday and short term NZDUSD technicals are bullish while prices are above 0.7120. looking for a break of 0.7225 to extend gains to 0.7240 and then 0.7300

The combination of a positive domestic economic outlook, high interest rates and bullish technicals suggests further NZDUSD gains to the pre-election peak.

TRADE IDEA RISKS

A major risk to this trade idea is if next week’s FOMC statement is more hawkish than expected. The ensuing US dollar rally would undermine NZDUSD and trigger the stop. Another risk is that this trade idea is late to the party. NZDUSD has already risen 50% from its recent low. It may be due for a correction which, if it over extends, will trigger the stop.

TRADE IDEA PARAMETERS

BUY NZDUSD: ½ normal position size at market (currently 0.7150) Balance at 0.7120

STOP LOSS: 0.7090, just below the 100-day moving average

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7240

TIME HORIZON 3 days

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The intraday NZDUSD technicals are bullish while trading above 0.7120, looking for a break of the recent top at 0.7220 to extend gains to the pre-election peak of 0.7400.

Source: Saxo Bank

NZDUSD daily with 100 day moving average noted

Source: Saxo Bank

I IMPORTANT NOTICE and DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by ONeillFX for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which ONeillFX, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither ONeillFX nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a “call to action” or suggestion that you enter a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the way you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax, and other professional advisors. All ONeillFX products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of ONeillFX.